The Chinese military is studying the use of artificial intelligence to boost the capabilities of its hypersonic missiles in defeating U.S. missile defenses, according to an Air Force think tank report.
However, the report by the China Aerospace Studies Institute questioned whether the added capability of the maneuvering high-speed missiles is real and will actually enable them to defeat new and advancing American missile defenses.
The report also warned that China could exploit its advantage in hypersonic missiles during an invasion of Taiwan by using the missiles to threaten U.S. and allied intervention.
China’s two main hypersonic glide vehicles, or HGVs, are carried by DF-17 and DF-27 missiles and maneuver during flight to amplify their strike capabilities. “Yet questions remain about how maneuvers are achieved and the extent to which they can adjust to avoid defensive interceptors,” the Aug. 3 report said.
Most HGV maneuvers are programmed prior to launch using advanced computer algorithms. Chinese scientists at Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics are working on advanced AI-enabled neural networks for “intercept avoid” — eluding strikes from missile defenses that will allow the missiles to continue toward targets.
The research involves methods for sensing, analyzing and estimating the flight path of a hypersonic missile and learning and adapting flight patterns during flight.
The studies indicate that China since 2022 has been trying to improve its hypersonic strike weapons to evade both radar and anti-missile interceptors, the report said.
“The PLA has likely been exploring AI-enabled technologies to counter the Department of War’s nascent Golden Dome effort by engineering HGV guidance systems capable of evading defensive intercepts,” the report stated, noting that the research preceded the announcement of the new national missile defense and referring to the Trump administration’s unofficial name for the Department of Defense.
The Pentagon also is working on technology and systems to knock out hypersonic missiles, and the PLA researchers are trying to stay ahead of the U.S. effort, the report said.
The AI-powered hypersonic missiles would seek to rapidly compute a command for avoiding anti-missile systems based on the dynamics of the offensive missiles.
The report said the Chinese process for defeating interceptor missiles would be helped by adding longer maneuver distance and range.
Ultra-high-speed hypersonic missiles are difficult for ground-, sea- and air-based radar to map in a continuous track because the weapons travel so fast they prevent sensing from one radar field to another — elements vital for targeting.
To deal with the threats, the Pentagon is working on new defense technologies. They include the Hypersonic Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor and Glide Phase Interceptor that will rely on high throughput from low- and medium-orbit satellites.
The two systems are expected to be key elements of the Golden Dome defense that will be used against hypersonic missiles.
With the U.S. military lagging both China and Russia in hypersonic missiles, the report warned that the PLA may seek to exploit the short-term window of its advantage in the missile strike capability to “create a denial zone or a specific attack perimeter, putting potential intruders at risk,” the report said, noting possible use in a Taiwan invasion.
“The concept here would simply be to annex Taiwan quickly using highly lethal, difficult-to-defend hypersonic weapons to prevent any U.S. and allied forces from successfully intervening to defend Taiwan,” the report said.
The goal would be to occupy Taiwan rapidly and then render any U.S. or allied counterattack too difficult.
China plans to use its DF-17 hypersonic missile against foreign military bases and warships in the western Pacific, the report said.
The Pentagon’s annual report on the Chinese military stated in 2024 that, according to published PLA writings, the DF-17 has advanced technology that can evade radar and interceptors. The 4,000-mile-range hypersonic DF-27 also can threaten U.S. territory. Newer hypersonic missiles include the YJ-15, YJ-19, YJ-17, and YJ-20 systems that can be air-, ground-, sea- and submarine-launched.
The intercept avoidance technology is the next step in PLA efforts to harden or defend the missiles’ guidance and networking from U.S. missile defenses, including the new systems being worked on.
PLA researchers are seeking to use AI-powered neural networks to learn interceptor flight paths, signals and sensor emissions and guidance specifics to help hypersonic missiles avoid them.
“However, it remains unclear whether PLA HGVs are now capable of intercept avoidance,” the report said, noting the difficulties of operationally integrating deep neural networks in the missiles.
Advanced U.S. interceptor technology also could spoof or confuse advanced Chinese hypersonic missile guidance as part of its attack capabilities, the report said.
And large fleets of U.S. satellites could be used to track AI hypersonic weapons and guide interceptors.
Tracking and targeting sensors also could be AI-powered to adjust their flight paths to hypersonic missile maneuvers to overcome the intercept avoidance, the report said.
Contact the author
Please read our comment policy before commenting.