Prediction market Kalshi is issuing its first lifetime ban, against former Rep. George Santos, over betting on his own attendance at President Trump’s State of the Union address.
The Republican ex-congressman and convicted felon made more than $17,800 after he said he would be watching the presidential speech in person, wagered against his own attendance and skipped town, according to federal regulators.
On Monday, Kalshi’s Compliance Department announced it is permanently suspending Mr. Santos, of New York, from direct or indirect access to Kalshi, including a $71,356 penalty.
This marks the first time the platform has issued a lifetime ban, a Kalshi spokesperson told The Washington Times.
“Mr. Santos faces additional financial penalties and will be banned permanently from trading on Kalshi given his lack of cooperation” with the compliance department, the spokesperson said in a statement.
Kalshi’s rules state that a person capable of influencing the outcome of the event being wagered on cannot bet on it. Despite this, Mr. Santos placed a series of large trades on his attendance at the State of the Union, the Monday notice reads.
After placing his bets, he posted a series of public statements regarding his attendance to influence the market, including false or misleading statements, Kalshi said.
Mr. Santos said on social media that he would attend the February address, teasing his appearance and asking followers what he should wear, which drove up the odds of his attendance on the prediction marketplace.
While publicly signaling he would be in the gallery, Mr. Santos secretly placed wagers on Kalshi betting that he would not attend, federal regulators said.
When the speech began, Mr. Santos said that travel issues left him stranded at an airport, causing the prediction market odds on his attendance to crash while netting him a profit on his counter-bets.
Mr. Santos’ trades had been flagged by Kalshi, which then froze his account and alerted the Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, both of which opened investigations.
The CFTC investigated the trades as a deceptive market manipulation scheme. Santos agreed to a $35,000 settlement, which included paying back roughly $17,000 in profits plus a fine, alongside a three-year trading ban.
The Washington Times has reached out to Mr. Santos for comment.
His bets came months after his release from federal prison after being granted clemency by Mr. Trump, setting him free after serving less than three months behind bars.
In 2024, Mr. Santos admitted to wire fraud and aggravated identity theft, and a judge sentenced him in 2025 to 87 months — over seven years in federal prison.
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