Analysts question whether restocking lost Reaper drones is the right call as Iran war losses mount

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The U.S. Air Force has lost nearly one-third of its MQ-9 Reaper drone fleet in Middle East operations since the start of the Trump administration, with no active production line to replace them and no funded congressional plan to do so, according to military, congressional and defense industry officials.

The Congressional Research Service documented at least 42 aircraft lost in the Iran war, which began Feb. 28, including 28 MQ-9 Reaper drones, four F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets, one F-35 and seven KC-135 refueling tankers. An additional 17 drones have been shot down in clashes with Yemen’s Houthi rebels over the past nine years. In total, at least 45 MQ-9A Reapers have been lost in the Middle East since 2017, sources confirmed to The Washington Times.

Air Force Lt. Gen. David Tabor told lawmakers in May that only 135 Reaper aircraft remain in the service’s inventory, meaning losses in Iran and Yemen have destroyed up to one-third of the total fleet. Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, told senators at a classified briefing this week that he needs the lost drones replaced, though how that would happen remains unclear.

General Atomics, the Reaper’s manufacturer, shuttered production of the MQ-9A in 2025 after Air Force orders dwindled. The company is now offering the MQ-9B SkyGuardian as a replacement at roughly $30 million per aircraft, with a production line currently building approximately 100 aircraft for 10 NATO countries. The Air Force said it would cannibalize remaining Reapers and is attempting to buy back as many of the aircraft as possible.

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach told Congress on June 9 that the service is not in a crisis, but some defense analysts are skeptical that simply restocking the lost Reapers is the right approach. Jennifer Kavanagh of Defense Priorities argued the platform proved “completely non-survivable” in the Middle East and said cheaper, expendable reconnaissance drones and space assets would be a wiser investment.

Congress is simultaneously negotiating the Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion defense budget while absorbing unanticipated war costs. Lawmakers including Sen. John Hoeven and Sen. Lisa Murkowski expressed concern that funding pressures could make it difficult to both replace lost platforms and invest in next-generation technology.

Read more: U.S. losing Reaper drones in the Mideast without any clear plan to replace them