OPINION:
Food affordability is a front-and-center issue for American families. To determine appropriate policy solutions, policymakers need clarity about why affordability remains a challenge.
Any sober analysis will conclude that America’s increased exposure to geopolitical crises is at the core of this problem.
A nation that can feed itself is inherently safer than one that cannot. As chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, I led the effort to pass the 2018 Farm Bill on a simple conviction: that Congress must recognize how directly food security connects to national security.
Today’s food affordability crisis is making that truth impossible to ignore.
Fertilizer is an essential staple component of any agricultural endeavor. Global fertilizer markets are now under pressure from three distinct geopolitical crises: ongoing instability in the Strait of Hormuz, the Russia-Ukraine war and continued export restrictions in China.
These disruptions are driving up costs at every link in the chain. Whether it is limiting access to key inputs, such as sulfur and ammonia, or raising the costs of moving them to market, manufacturers and consumers alike are feeling the pinch.
For every 10 tons of phosphate fertilizer produced, 4 tons of sulfur are required. Because sulfur is a byproduct of oil refinement, energy is at the root of this crisis. I learned that, when overseeing farm policy, the inputs farmers depend on most are often the ones Washington understands least.
Sulfur is indispensable to phosphate fertilizer production, and, unlike oil or grain, it has no reserves, substitutes or alternative supply networks. Since early 2025, sulfur and sulfuric acid costs have more than tripled.
The need to understand energy markets is a lesson West Texas taught me long before Washington was paying attention. The link between energy prices and farm input costs has always been direct and unavoidable.
Fuel costs have risen sharply recently. Since conflict escalated and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices have roughly doubled, peaking at $138 per barrel in April. Diesel is up roughly 50%. These shocks have hit domestic fertilizer manufacturers just as hard as farmers.
The Strait of Hormuz closure was also a direct shock to the fertilizer supply itself. Under normal conditions, roughly one-third of all globally traded fertilizer transits the strait, along with an estimated 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas. LNG is a critical feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production.
Another impediment to the fertilizer is Beijing’s restriction on exports of sulfuric acid, urea and processed fertilizers. Industry estimates suggest the controls could affect up to 40 million metric tons of fertilizer, which is 50% to 75% of China’s typical annual export volume.
Amid these geopolitical shocks, American fertilizer producers have been doing their part. Since 2025, billions of dollars in new greenfield investments have been announced, with capacity expected online by 2029.
The U.S. already supplies 65% of domestic farm needs from domestic facilities, and countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizers have been essential to protecting that foundation.
Morocco controls nearly 70% of the world’s phosphate reserves and is the dominant global exporter of phosphate rock. Before countervailing duties were imposed in April 2021, Moroccan imports made up most U.S. phosphate fertilizer imports.
This left American agriculture at the mercy of one foreign nation, a dependence that has since been dramatically reversed, with Moroccan imports falling to near zero by 2025.
Now, the United States International Trade Commission is set to review whether revoking those orders would risk a recurrence of material injury to domestic farmers. The timing could not be more dangerous.
Reopening the U.S. market to Moroccan subsidized imports would undermine the domestic producers currently holding the line. Dependence on a single foreign nation for a foundational agricultural input is a national security vulnerability.
Weakening domestic capacity through burdensome permitting or rolling back trade protections would be disastrous. It would do nothing to lower global sulfur prices, reopen the Strait of Hormuz or reverse Chinese restrictions. It would only deepen America’s vulnerability.
The right response is twofold. First, continue expanding American energy dominance. This includes increasing LNG supply and exports to nitrogen producers overseas. We must reform a domestic permitting process so broken that a single phosphate mine can take more than a decade and cost $30 million just to obtain a permit.
Next, policymakers must treat our domestic and global food supply chain stability as the national security issue it is and help resolve these foreign conflicts.
American farmers and families are being squeezed by foreign factors. They deserve a coordinated response that matches the actual source and scale of the crisis, not a blame game aimed at the domestic producers currently holding the line.
• The Honorable Mike Conaway is a former House Agriculture Committee chairman. He was a member of Congress from Texas from 2005 to 2021.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.