NEWS AND ANALYSIS:
Among the most immediate impacts of the midterm elections that will return control of Congress to Democrats are expected major cutbacks and cancellations of Trump administration defense policies and programs.
President Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance blamed voter opposition to the Iran war as a major factor in Tuesday’s blue wave, and one of the first anticipated actions by Democrats is likely to be a ban on funding for the conflict.
The White House in June sent Congress a supplemental funding request for $87.6 billion related to the Iran conflict, with about $67 billion going to the Pentagon. Some $21 billion is set for replenishing munitions with the remaining funds to cover operations.
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House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the expected new House speaker, has been a vocal critic of the war arguing that funding for those military operations should be used to alleviate domestic affordability problems.
The current $1.15 trillion defense authorization bill has passed the House but is stalled in the Senate over Iran war issues. It is likely to be the administration’s last successful effort to fund new programs such as the Golden Dome missile and drone defense that is slated to get $397 million under the bill.
The Senate returns Monday for a lame-duck session that will seek to advance the defense bill, which would then go to a House-Senate conference.
Golden Dome is in the early stages. In addition to the $397 million, the administration is seeking another $17.1 billion through reconciliation funding outside the formal congressional budget process.
Many congressional Democrats for years harbored a political aversion to missile defenses on policy grounds, favoring in the past greater arms control agreements and viewing defenses as strategically destabilizing.
Another priority likely to be killed by Democrats is the new Trump-class battleship. The House defense bill contains $1 billion for the new warship. But the Senate version declined to authorize the battleship.
Less clear is whether Democrats will cut needed funding for strategic forces modernization that has garnered some bipartisan support in the past but is opposed by left-liberal members of Congress who could be in the ascendency after election gains by socialists.
The current bill contains $26.2 billion for new nuclear missiles, bombers and submarines.
The new Congress that convenes in January is likely to promote the ranking members of the House and Senate Armed Services Committee as the new chairmen.
Rep. Adam Smith, Washington Democrat, will likely take over the House panel while Sen. Jack Reed, Rhode Island Democrat, will run the Senate committee. Both are liberals who favor greater domestic spending and less defense funding.
Congressional Democrats also could seek to restore some diversity, equity and inclusion programs that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has largely removed.
The current defense bill contains a provision that would bar spending funds for health coverage that includes gender-affirming care, the euphemism for sex-change operations.
A return of environmental policies related to the military also could be revived by Democrats.
Mr. Trump appears set to use his veto power to prevent major undermining of key programs from the coming Democratic Congress. He posted a photo of a red hat with “VETO” on social media Tuesday night.
Veto power alone, however, is not enough to counteract Congress’ power of the purse over defense and security issues.
Rick Fisher, a China military expert, said there are two administration programs that are “existential and generational” for American security.
The Golden Dome defense is a necessary response to the threat of the growing nuclear arsenals of China and Russia and is the best leverage for convincing Moscow and Beijing to join nuclear arms talks, he said.
“And second, Trump’s commitment to space superiority is the main way to deny the same to China, which will use its control of the Moon-Mars-Solar System high ground to dominate warfare on Earth for centuries,” he said.
Retired Navy Capt. James E. Fanell, a former Pacific Fleet intelligence chief, said the election results could threaten the $1.5 trillion budget needed to rebuild the Navy via the Golden Fleet program announced in December 2025.
“While some congressional Republicans have opposed this budget proposal, the new Democrat-led Congress could demonstrate its commitment to protecting America’s national security in the Pacific by supporting it,” he said.
“If the new Congress takes a partisan approach to America’s national security, then initiatives like the Golden Dome, Golden Fleet and the reindustrialization of America’s shipbuilding will be dashed and the People’s Republic of China’s Navy will go on to rule the seven seas,” Capt. Fanell said.
Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David A. Deptula, a former deputy chief of staff for intelligence, said he is concerned urgent defense modernization will become a casualty of partisan politics when the military can least afford it.
“Any congressional effort to reduce defense spending, delay modernization or undermine critical programs such as the F-47, B-21, Golden Dome and advanced munitions production would carry serious national security consequences,” he said.
Randall Schriver, a former Pentagon and State Department policymaker, warned that Democrat-controlled congresses historically have flatlined defense spending.
“But we need to replenish munitions and invest in the joint force to deter China. Unfortunately that won’t be cheap,” said Mr. Schriver, now with the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security.
Space Force to build satellites for Earth-moon space
The Space Force disclosed plans Monday to build satellites capable of operating in the large area between Earth and the moon known as cislunar space.
The notice to industry stated that Space Force systems developers are looking to procure five space vehicles each requiring a spacecraft bus and carrying an unspecified U.S. government payload along with a mission management system and telemetry, tracking, control and communications capabilities.
The program is being called the “Cislunar Space System” that could be deployed by 2029.
“These vehicles may serve as seed vehicles that will inform the acquisition strategy for a potential future proliferated cislunar constellation,” the industry notice said.
The notice seeks a rapid, low-risk engineering solution from industry for the program.
The Defense Intelligence Agency in a report made public last month also warned that China could threaten cislunar space. “China portrays its interest in cislunar space as peaceful, but PRC officials have also discussed pursuing military capabilities in cislunar space,” the report stated.
A report by the Air Force Research Laboratory stated that U.S. military forces are preparing to defend satellites and other systems beyond Earth’s orbit in areas extending to the moon and beyond.
According to the 2021 report, defense of cislunar space — the volume of space outside of geosynchronous Earth orbit and within the moon’s gravitational pull — was outlined in a memorandum of understanding between the Space Force and NASA.
The report was made public as China and Russia announced plans to build a joint international research station on the moon that military officials say could be used for both military and commercial means.
Both nations’ space programs are linked to military operations and U.S. officials fear the moon base will give the U.S. adversaries the ability to control cislunar space.
In April, the Space Force warned in a report on the future space environment that China is expected to use its increasing space warfare power to conduct low-level warfare against the U.S. and to control space all the way to the moon.
To defend space, Space Force combat units will need sensors and communications hardened against attacks and space weapons.
“These combat units must deny and deceive sensing capabilities, collect and jam intersatellite links, and when necessary, responsibly destroy satellites without littering the domain with debris,” said the report, “Future Operating Environment 2040.”
“As operations expand beyond GEO, reversible to lethal capability must extend into cislunar space.”
The industry notice was first reported by Air and Space Forces Magazine.
Last month, Maj. Gen. Stephen G. Purdy Jr., a general in charge of the Space Force’s advanced programs, said in a speech that he was told in January not to discuss plans for cislunar systems and strategy.
Since that time, however, Pentagon leaders are discussing cislunar zones as a warfighting domain and seeking to develop systems that can operate there, he said.
Gen. Purdy said the shift is based on concerns about China’s military and strategic ambitions in deep space.
The future U.S. cislunar satellites could be used for intelligence gathering, position, navigation and timing and communications.
The satellites could be powered for maneuvering and orbital transfer as well as artificial intelligence and computer capabilities for long-term autonomous operations.
China, Russia collaborating on advanced weapons
China and Russia are working together on advanced weapons under their 2022 “no limits” partnership announced shortly before Russian forces invaded Ukraine, according to a think tank report.
The two major U.S. adversaries have limited conventional arms transfers but are building deeper exchanges for defense industrial production and supply chains, according to the report by the group C4ADS.
“The worst-case scenario is the emergence of a resilient defense industrial and technological axis capable of eroding the long-standing U.S. monopoly on precision warfare,” the report said.
Chinese-Russian cooperation involves joint work on advanced conventional weapons using China’s technology and industry that supports Moscow’s wartime need for military dual-use goods, manufacturing and intellectual property, the report said.
Joint research and development is also assisting Chinese and Russian state-owned defense industries to validate advanced weapons designs and bridge gaps between design and production, the report said.
A third area of weapons collaboration is through academic contacts between China and Russia on defense and military areas. The networking and cross-seeding of experts will eventually institutionalize long-term advanced weapons partnerships, the report said.
“Chinese-Russian [advanced conventional weapons] cooperation rests on mutually beneficial asymmetries,” the report said.
“Russia brings Soviet-legacy engineering and scientific capabilities while China offers vast industrial scale, advanced manufacturing, and a highly coordinated, well-funded system for channeling technological innovation into defense applications.”
The report urges American policymakers to join with allies and accelerate science and technology innovation.
The study also calls for engaging Beijing and Moscow separately in a bid to “introduce friction” and try to disrupt the exchanges on advanced weapons technologies and expertise.
The 68-page report, “A Marriage of Convenience? The Promise and Pitfalls of Chinese-Russian Advanced Conventional Weapons Cooperation,” was made public Oct. 22.
The group C4ADS describes itself as “data-loving global security trailblazers all united under one goal: dismantle the forces that threaten global peace and security.”
• Contact Bill Gertz on X @BillGertz.
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