HIGHLAND, Mich. — Marti Carroll wasn’t thrilled when former Rep. Mike Rogers suddenly called for a quick end to the Iran war, saying Republicans should be behind President Trump “1,000 percent.” But she’s sticking with him anyway.
It’s not that she’s excited about sending Mr. Rogers to the U.S. Senate. It’s that the alternative, Democrat Abdul El‑Sayed, would be a nightmare.
“I’ll die. We cannot have him,” the 68-year-old retiree said at a Rogers campaign barn party in this rural township just outside the Detroit metro area.
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Mr. Rogers’ moves to put some daylight between himself and Mr. Trump, first on the war and then on tariffs against Canada, struck some Michigan Republicans as a wobble. But it is also a strategic move by Mr. Rogers, whose MAGA base is already locked in and now needs to win over voters who are on the fence.
It’s a balancing act for a toss-up race in which the RealClearPolitics average shows Mr. El‑Sayed up by 3 points, roughly within the margin of error.
“There are a handful of Republicans that I know, very few of them, that are upset with Trump right now, but they are still voting for Trump,” said Michigan state Rep. Matt Maddock, one of Mr. Trump’s earliest supporters in the state. “This is more of an issue for the independent than it is for the Trump supporters, the MAGA supporters.”
Mr. Maddock said the war is costing the average Michigan family an extra $10 to $12 a week at the pump, but he said that’s a small price to keep Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and sponsoring terrorism around the world.
Trump administration officials say the pressure is working, claiming they’ve hit or topped the 20 million barrels a day that moved through the Strait of Hormuz before the war and that prices will fall.
Still, most voters don’t share the view that the war is worth the price.
A Pew Research Center survey conducted Sept. 28 to Oct. 4 found 65% of Americans disapprove of how Mr. Trump is handling the conflict, up from 61% in March. Just 33% approve. Republicans and GOP-leaning independents also have grown more negative over time, Pew found.
That shift helps explain why, on the hustings, most Republican candidates steer clear of the war.
Mr. Trump says Iran is slow‑walking a deal in hopes Democrats take Congress in the midterm elections and blunt his agenda — an argument that is catching on.
“MAGA voters see right through that tactic,” said
Brian Szmytke, financial chair of the Oakland County GOP. “It’s like we don’t let terrorists win. People will not allow Iran to win and to control their vote.”
Mr. Szmytke said Mr. Trump had the courage to take on a fight his predecessors avoided for decades.
“We understand that Iran is going to try and make things as painful as possible, and we can’t let Iran win by not turning out and voting,” he said.
Mr. El‑Sayed is using the war and tariffs as wedge issues to peel off anti‑Trump Republicans and independents.
“Whether it is the war in Iran or it is this insane tariff war, none of this makes sense,” Mr. El-Sayed said at a recent campaign stop.
He accused Mr. Rogers of “flip-flopping” because of his “sagging poll numbers.”
For his part, Mr. Rogers has tried to thread the needle. He says he hasn’t flip-flopped on tariffs, which he previously called “masterful” and “necessary,” or on the war in Iran, which he once described as a “win-win-win.”
He now says the tariffs have run their course. He said tariffs helped boost the state’s cherry industry and truck manufacturing at GM, and that he has talked with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick about how to wind them down.
“This was about time. This wasn’t about a change of position,” Mr. Rogers told reporters after Friday’s debate with Mr. El-Sayed. “We were originally told that the Canadian tariffing was going to be settled and settled quickly — it didn’t happen. My argument is, and I made this to the administration: time to wrap this up.”
As for the war, Mr. Rogers said the effort set back Iran’s nuclear program “at least 20 years” and “decimated” its army, navy and air force. But he also said the impact on diesel prices is “going to take a horrific toll not only on our farmers trying to get the harvest out of the field, but certainly grocery prices.”
“You just can’t let it go and linger,” he said.
At the Rogers barn party, attendees described the war as a “necessary evil,” and most were fine with Mr. Roger playing politics to win.
“He has to appeal to a broader audience than just us,”
said Chris Steuer, 59, a retired police sergeant from suburban Detroit. “He needs the fencesitters.”
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