5 questions about Alberta’s referendum and Mark Carney’s campaign to keep Canada together

1. What is Alberta voting on Monday?

Monday’s vote is not a direct referendum on independence. Albertans will decide whether to remain a province or instruct the government to begin the legal process toward a future referendum on separation. Advance voting runs through Saturday.

2. What did Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney say at the Calgary rally?

Carney warned that the United States is trying to break Canada so it can “own us,” though he did not directly mention the U.S. or President Trump in the speech. He urged Albertans not to use the vote to “send a message,” calling a vote against Canada “a dangerous bluff” that would bring years of division and uncertainty. He also acknowledged that Albertans’ frustrations with Ottawa are real.

3. Why is Carney’s appeal notable for a Liberal prime minister?

Alberta has feuded with Liberal governments for decades over energy and federal power. Carney, who grew up in Alberta, has broken with some policies of his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, fast-tracked the proposed Pacific Link oil pipeline and called Canada an energy superpower. McGill professor Daniel Beland called Carney’s Alberta popularity “highly unusual” and said he has benefited from a “Trump effect,” as Trump’s trade war and 51st-state threats have rallied Canadians around their leader.

4. What do separatists say about the vote and Carney’s argument?

Leaders of the pro-independence group Let Alberta Decide call Carney “formidable” but describe his agreements with Premier Danielle Smith as “pinky promises” that don’t resolve long-standing grievances. They reject his claim that the timing is wrong. Co-chair Tanya Clemens said separatists also see the vote as a way to give Alberta leverage in negotiations with Ottawa, not only as a step toward independence.

5. How did a once-fringe cause reach a provincewide vote?

Alberta independence was long confined to the political fringes. After the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 Freedom Convoy, activists who had organized against vaccine mandates and other restrictions turned their attention to separation. Clemens said COVID taught people how to organize politically. Smith, who called the vote, supports remaining in Canada but has said support for separation remains too high for her liking.

For more on this report, read “Carney says U.S. is trying to break Canada as Alberta votes on separation path” from The Associated Press, published on The Washington Times.