The final jobs report before the midterm elections showed sluggish hiring in September, but the mediocre number offers a silver lining for President Trump and his Republican Party’s defense of Capitol Hill majorities.
Cooling job growth makes the Federal Reserve less likely to increase interest rates on the cusp of Nov. 3’s Election Day.
The upshot is a good news-bad news picture for Mr. Trump, who frequently boasts about job creation but says higher borrowing costs are choking growth and causing many of the economy’s ills.
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CME FedWatch, a major forecaster, sees only a 21.6% chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s Oct. 28 meeting.
Prediction markets had seen a 50%-plus chance of an October rate hike just a few days ago, given lingering inflation concerns.
The U.S. added only 29,000 jobs in September, the government said Friday.
SEE ALSO: U.S. adds only 29,000 jobs in lackluster September report
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the unemployment rate inched up slightly, from 4.1% to 4.2%.
Wall Street had forecast 84,000 added jobs, so the number fell way short of expectations.
Most of the new jobs were in healthcare, a consistently high-performing sector, and in construction and manufacturing, likely due to the data-center boom.
The U.S. trade representative’s office, writing on social media, said Mr. Trump’s pro-growth policies have added 72,000 manufacturing jobs since December.
Yet the overall report is a disappointing turn for Mr. Trump, who is touting an economic renaissance before the midterms.
“A total of 29,000 jobs created in a month is a historically weak number that provides further support to the idea we are in a ’no hire, no fire’ economy,” said Wayne Winegarden, a senior fellow in economics at the Pacific Research Institute. “Worsening the news, the total jobs created in the previous two months was revised downward.”
On the plus side, the Fed tends to ease up on interest rates when hiring slows so that companies are encouraged to borrow, invest and hire.
U.S. stocks surged Friday after the jobs report, given the possible cut in interest rates.
Mr. Trump is also fixated on the Fed and its rate decisions. He says high rates are battering American businesses looking to grow and making it harder to pay off the national debt.
The country added a whopping 162,000 jobs in August despite earlier summer losses. A surge in the hospitality sector and teacher hiring ahead of the new school year buoyed the month.
Job gains were lackluster in 2025, as employers eased off a post-pandemic hiring frenzy and worried about factors such as new tariffs.
Employment rebounded earlier this year, turning the focus to high prices and whether to raise interest rates.
The Fed raised rates at its September meeting to bring inflation, which is running above 3% annually, closer to its 2% target.
Central bankers meet again before Halloween and in December.
“I am not convinced they raise rates in the upcoming meeting, given that the last rate increase is still working through the economy and the election is a few days away,” Mr. Winegarden said Friday.
Democratic leaders want voters to change course. They’re hammering Mr. Trump over elevated prices and higher borrowing rates.
“Costs are still too high, and rising mortgage rates are putting homeownership out of reach,” Rep. Brendan Boyle, Pennsylvania Democrat and ranking member of the House Budget Committee, said. “Americans need help, but all this president has to offer is more tariff taxes, more forever wars and more excuses.”
Mr. Trump says he inherited runaway inflation from President Joseph R. Biden and is slowly getting the situation under control.
“Inflation was caused by Biden,” Mr. Trump said as he departed the White House for a campaign trip on Thursday. “The worst inflation in history.”
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