Democrats are on the verge of capturing a majority of the nation’s governorships for the first time since 2010, threatening to break Republicans’ hold on state capitals as voter frustration over high costs creates headaches for the GOP heading into Tuesday’s midterms.
Republicans hold 26 governorships compared with 24 for Democrats.
With 36 governorships on the ballot next week, Democrats hope to flip Republican strongholds in Ohio, Iowa and Georgia while holding the top state spots in politically divided Wisconsin, Arizona and Michigan.
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The stakes extend well beyond individual states. A Democratic majority would mark the first time since 2010 that the party controlled more governors’ offices than Republicans.
That would give Democrats a larger platform to challenge President Trump’s policies during the final two years of his presidency and strengthen their position ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
It would also be critical for Democrats as they prepare for upcoming redistricting fights, battles over election integrity, abortion restrictions and immigration enforcement.
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“I think you’ll see more governors taking a stand. You have some that are extremely vocal, but there hasn’t been a coordinated effort by the Democratic governors. If they take control of the gubernatorial races, you may see a coordinated effort to push back,” said Patricia Crouse, a political science professor at the University of New Haven.
Democrats are also expected to reclaim the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate.
On Tuesday, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved its ratings in two GOP strongholds in a positive sign for Democrats. It moved Nebraska from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” and Kansas from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.”
“Democrats are in prime position to pick up between two and four governors’ seats this cycle,” Cook Political Report wrote in its analysis.
The changing landscape underscores the difficulties Republicans are facing as they try to hold on to state power amid voter frustration over the economy and Mr. Trump’s job performance.
“There are a lot of open governors’ races without an incumbent. Having a lot of open seats creates opportunities for Democrats because a lot of the GOP candidates are new,” Ms. Crouse said. “More candidates will be judged on the issues rather than personality or incumbency. People are looking at the issues and looking for help with high gas prices.”
Seven key governors’ races are especially viewed as critical to determining which party holds the majority of power. The fierce competition is in Ohio, Alaska, Nevada, Oregon, Georgia, Texas and Wisconsin.
Ohio’s governor race between Republican Vivek Ramaswamy and Democrat Amy Acton was tight. That changed last week when Mr. Ramaswamy released an ad featuring Ms. Acton’s estranged mother accusing her of lying about her childhood. The mother lost custody of Ms. Acton and her brother after their stepfather was arrested and indicted on a charge of raping her when she was a child.
The ad drew widespread condemnation and pushed Ms. Acton into a narrow lead in a state Mr. Trump won by 11 points in 2024. If she wins, it would be the first time in 20 years Ohio elected a Democratic governor.
In Alaska, the governor’s race includes three GOP candidates and one Democrat because of the state’s ranked-choice system. It’s possible the Republicans split the vote, handing victory to Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins. Mr. Trump, who endorsed Republican Bernadette Wilson, has expressed frustration with so many GOP candidates in one race.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who won reelection by double digits in 2022, is facing his most competitive campaign, with polls showing him holding a slim lead over Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. If she wins, it would be the first time in 30 years Texas elected a Democrat to the state’s highest office.
Georgia is on pace to be the closest gubernatorial race. It’s one of four campaigns the Cook Political Report labeled a toss-up, with Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson essentially tied. If Ms. Bottoms wins, she would be the first Black female governor in U.S. history and the first Democrat to lead the state since 2003.
In Nevada, Republicans hope to keep the governor’s mansion as incumbent Joe Lombardo tries to fend off a challenge from Democrat Attorney General Aaron Ford. Polls have been mixed, with some showing Mr. Lombardo with a small lead while others show Mr. Ford ahead. The Cook Political Report has rated the race a toss-up.
Oregon and Kansas may represent the two best chances for the GOP to flip a governorship.
In Oregon, Christine Drazen, a Republican, is virtually tied against Democrat Gov. Tina Kotek. Some polls show Ms. Drazen ahead by a narrow margin.
In Kansas, the GOP’s Ty Masterson leads closely in the polls against Democrat Cindy Holscher for the open seat.
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