JERUSALEM — Israel’s final election results confirmed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies lost their parliamentary majority and that weeks of difficult negotiations among very different parties, from ultra-Orthodox Jewish to secular to Arab-led, lie ahead.
The results released early Friday showed Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 seats in Tuesday’s election. The main opposition bloc won 48. Arab-led parties secured the other 19, a historic showing. Now parties must meet, bargain and seek a way to team up for at least 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset.
Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, remains in charge. His main opponents would most likely need to partner with the Arab-led parties to replace him.
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Underscoring the fraught path ahead, Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of a right-wing anti-Netanyahu faction, on Friday appeared to rule out any partnership with Arab-led parties. That alone would make it nearly impossible for Netanyahu’s opponents to form a coalition to oust him.
The president will task someone with forming a government
Difficult decisions lie ahead. Will the main opposition parties that campaigned hard to unseat the divisive Netanyahu make the politically sensitive choice to partner with Arab-led ones? Or will they toss their vows aside to team up with Netanyahu in a potentially fractious unity government?
Israel largely shuts down on Friday for the Jewish Sabbath, and it was not clear who might be meeting with whom. Israelis debated possible coalitions and challenges, as some expressed traditional wariness around Arab parties and others insisted it was time for Jewish-led parties to embrace them.
The election results still need to be certified and submitted to the president next Wednesday. Then President Isaac Herzog will task someone with forming the new government. That could be the leader of the party that received the most votes - Netanyahu - or whoever leaders of the various parties believe is best suited.
If multiple attempts to form a government fail, Israel faces a new election early next year. Herzog this week said he will do everything in his power to avoid that scenario.
Netanyahu and Likud target Arab parties without evidence
In the hours before final results were announced, Netanyahu and his Likud party amplified unsubstantiated allegations that Arab-led parties had “stolen” the election, potentially with foreign assistance.
The opposition quickly accused Netanyahu of demonizing Arab citizens, who make up 20% of the population and showed up at the polls like never before in outrage over his far-right government.
On Friday, Netanyahu again warned against forming a coalition with Arab parties.
The head of Israel’s election committee, Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, had said “serious suspicions” of foreign interference had been brought before him. In a letter to the Shin Bet security agency, Sohlberg said he could not verify the claims but asked the agency to investigate.
Israeli media reported that members of Netanyahu’s party accused Qatar of involvement, allegations the Gulf state dismissed as “ridiculous and dangerous.” Many Israelis view Qatar as a patron of Hamas, while Qatar says its relations with the militant group are part of its U.S.-backed mediation efforts in the region.
The election commission said the investigation was based on classified intelligence. Acting Director General Dean Livne did not elaborate but warned that reports about the investigation had been “entirely unfounded.”
“It does not affect the final results that will be submitted to the president, nor does it concern any particular sector of the population,” he said.
By casting doubt on the vote, Netanyahu appeared to be trying to block any potential alliance between his opponents and the Arab-led parties. Netanyahu has suggested that it would be treasonous for chief rival Gadi Eisenkot or others to join with them.
The Shin Bet, seeking to calm tensions, said its investigation was not meant to “cast aspersions” on an entire section of the population that “exercised its right to vote in a democratic and lawful manner.”
The elections committee also sounded a note of caution in a letter written to a concerned member of parliament, saying that “allegations of systematic violations of electoral integrity are baseless.”
The committee wants findings from the Shin Bet within a week.
Opposition could assert control in the upcoming Knesset
Even as coalition negotiations begin, the new Knesset is expected to be sworn in Nov. 10. Once it convenes, Eisenkot’s bloc could join forces with the Arab parties to elect a new Knesset speaker, giving them control over the parliamentary agenda and potentially allowing them to advance and pass legislation before a new government is formed.
But Lieberman, a former Netanyahu ally now committed to ousting him, referred to the Arab parties as “supporters of terrorism” in a Facebook post, saying his Yisrael Beitenu party, which won seven seats, would not partner with them.
Arab party leaders have condemned Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel but have declined to label it a terrorist organization, in part because it would appear to justify Israel’s devastating campaign in Gaza.
Hundreds of Israelis have been holding rallies urging Eisenkot and others to join forces with the Arab-led parties, a step that has happened only once before, briefly, in 2021.
“I believe we should join forces and cooperate with the Arab parties, a legitimate population in the state of Israel,” said Miri Sklair, a resident of Jaffa.
Issa Jaber Abu-Ghosh, the former mayor of an Arab village outside Jerusalem, said “Israel all the time claims to be the only democracy in the Middle East,” but that it’s not a “real democracy” if its politics remain divided between Jews and Arabs.
If Netanyahu loses office, that would set off a cascade of events that critics say he has desperately sought to avoid. He would be politically weakened as he faces an ongoing corruption trial, and an official inquiry into the security failures surrounding Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack would almost certainly be launched.
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