Federal scientists are expecting this to be a Super El Nino year, with different effects on fall and winter in the U.S.
El Nino is the warm phase of a broader climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean. A Super El Nino occurs when temperatures in the tropical parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean are consistently 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above average for several months, according to the U.S. Geological Survey website.
The El Nino phenomenon weakens trade winds, strengthening the jet stream and pushing it southward, leading to wetter, rainier conditions in some parts of the country and drier conditions in others.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said this month that it envisions “warmer-than-average temperatures expected across the northern U.S.; wetter-than-average conditions likely across the southern U.S., from California to Florida, and along the Eastern Seaboard; and drought improving for the majority of the country, including areas in the East, Southern Great Plains and Southwest.”
Each occurrence of El Nino varies in exact weather phenomena from the last, though scientists have determined general trends for different U.S. regions.
In the Midwest, for example, “El Nino winters are commonly, but not always, warmer than usual,” according to the USGS website. In terms of precipitation, “there is a tendency for Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana to be drier than normal during El Nino winters and for parts of Iowa to be wetter than normal.”
In the “north central U.S.” which includes Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming, the USGS said it’s possible the region experiences its warmest winter on record.
The weather in Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska is generally wetter during strong El Nino years, while other parts of the region “have more often experienced near-normal to below-normal precipitation,” the USGS said.
The Pacific Northwest is projected to have fewer storms than normal, since El Nino causes storms to move southward, and to generally be warmer and drier than in other winters.
The Northeast and mid-Atlantic are projected to have more storms such as nor’easters due to the southern shift in the jet stream, the USGS said, but winters in the region are also warmer on average during El Nino than in other years. This, the agency said, makes projecting the amount of expected snowfall difficult.
Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas should expect higher precipitation and more cold fronts that could cause snow. However, the USGS said people in the region shouldn’t expect sudden extreme cold snaps akin to those in 2021, since those phenomena rely on a weaker jet stream.
In the Southeast, people on the Gulf Coast and the Atlantic Seaboard should expect more coastal storms and higher precipitation, with snow and ice depending on how cold it happens to get in the region when storm fronts come in.
Parts of the Southwest, the USGS said, are “often wetter than normal during El Nino winters.”
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