Democrats need four Senate seats to win control — but Fetterman could make it five

Democrats need to flip four Senate seats this November to take control of the chamber — but some political analysts say the real number might be five, thanks to one unpredictable senator.

Sen. John Fetterman, Pennsylvania Democrat, has repeatedly broken from his party since taking office, fueling speculation that he could eventually switch political parties. Mr. Fetterman has vowed he won’t, but that hasn’t stopped Democratic strategists from worrying.

“I wouldn’t count on him finishing his term as a Democrat,” said J. Miles Coleman, an analyst with the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

That uncertainty adds a wrinkle to an already uphill climb. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, and Democrats must defend every seat they already hold while flipping four Republican-held seats to take the majority — a tall order in a map that includes states President Trump carried in the last three elections.

Analysts say the whole effort likely hinges on North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper is challenging Republican Michael Whatley for the seat held by retiring Sen. Thom Tillis.

“It is hard to see a Democratic Senate majority that doesn’t include North Carolina,” said Jacob Rubashkin of Inside Elections.

Even with encouraging polling numbers elsewhere, Mr. Fetterman’s unpredictability means Democrats may not be able to celebrate a Senate majority just because they win the seats they’re targeting.

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• Democrats need 4 Senate seats. Their path runs through Trump country