Analysts: GOP to gain many seats in '10

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By Donald Lambro

Following major setbacks in 2008, the national political landscape for Republicans has improved so dramatically in recent months that election analysts say the only remaining question is how deep the Democrats' losses will be in the 2010 congressional midterm races.

President Obama's approval rating has fallen to 51 percent in the Gallup tracking survey. A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that voters were nearly evenly divided on which party should control Congress, with Democrats edging Republicans by just three points, down from a seven-point lead in July, and election analysts have moved nearly two dozen Democratic House seats into "competitive" rating columns benefiting the Republican Party.

"The president's standing has weakened; Democrats are on the defensive on the economy, spending and health care; and key midterm voting groups — including seniors and independents — are moving away from the Democrats and toward the GOP," veteran elections analyst Stuart Rothenberg told his newsletter subscribers last week in his latest survey of House races for 2010.

"We've moved a number of races, but it's still early, and we expect many more races to develop that are not now on our chart. Eventually, this should put more Democratic seats at risk," Mr. Rothenberg said.

Longtime elections handicapper Charlie Cook agrees that the national political movement has turned decidedly away from the Democrats at this point in the two-year election cycle.

"As the political environment for Democrats has turned ugly, it is widely assumed the party will sustain losses in next year's midterm elections. The operative question is: How bad will those losses be?" he said in a recent analysis for Congress Daily.

Historically, the party that wins the White House loses House seats in the new president's first midterm elections, a trend that has been broken just twice since the 1930s (under Presidents Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934 and George W. Bush in 2002). The post-World War II average losses in a president's first term is 16 House seats, but Mr. Cook says "the number of seats now at risk exceeds [the Democrats'] majority."

Democrats hold a 256-177 edge in the House, with two vacancies, meaning Republicans would have to score a net gain of 40 seats to reclaim the majority lost in 2006.

With little more than 13 months remaining before next year's elections, Democrats are hoping the economy will turn around sooner than expected, unemployment will recede more quickly than current projections and the White House will score a major political victory by passing a health care reform bill before the end of the year.

"But they also fear the 13 months might give matters a chance to snowball and get worse. If Democrats go 0-2 in this year's gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, that will only dampen party morale more," Mr. Cook warned.