President Bush and the Republicans got some good news on the U.S. economy last week, news that advisers and party strategists think will help the Republican Party keep majority control of Congress should the trend continue into the fall elections.
One month into the midterm election year, the government reported that the unemployment rate fell from 4.9 percent to 4.7 percent because business payrolls rose by nearly 200,000 jobs and pushed the jobless rate to the lowest level since July 2001. The economy has created 4.7 million jobs since Mr. Bush’s tax cuts took effect in 2003.
At the same time, the Commerce Department reported that manufacturing orders rose by 1.1 percent in December, giving the administration added evidence that the recovery was continuing and showing no signs of slowing down, according to economists who have studied the figures.
People were interested in these podcasts
“The numbers show that the economic recovery is still going on and is proceeding apace, and I think they are very encouraging,” said former White House economic adviser Larry Lindsey, the chief architect of Mr. Bush’s tax-cut policies.
“We’re now back to levels of unemployment considered normal, some would use the phrase ’full employment,’ and I think unemployment will continue to fall. The economy has a lot of momentum,” Mr. Lindsey said.
Other economic advisers agree with his assessment and think the news could improve voters’ perception of the Republicans at a crucial time.
“You had job creation last month across the board, so all of this suggests the labor market is deepening and broadening and I think that spells good news for the Republican Party going into the 2006 election,” said Cesar Conda, former chief domestic adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney.
Any political payoff as a result of the economy’s comeback can’t come too soon for the Republican Party, as Democrats are beating Republicans in the generic polls ahead of the congressional elections.
White House officials express particular frustration over the fact that Mr. Bush has had poor polls on his handling of the economy in the past year — despite strong economic growth numbers in the 3.5 percent range, an unemployment rate that fell below 5 percent last year and improvement in manufacturing in 2005 followed by a late bull rally in the stock market.
A Gallup Poll last month found that 39 percent of Americans approved of the way Mr. Bush is handling the economy, down from 50 percent a year ago. Many economic advisers think his weak numbers on the economy really reflect the country’s division on the Iraq war.
“The economy is doing great. The reason it doesn’t show up in the president’s handling of the economy is because of Iraq,” Mr. Conda said.
The Democrats, meantime, were not impressed by the overall numbers.
“Democrats are pleased that more Americans are finding work, but this president’s paltry 1.5 percent job-growth record is as bad as any president in the last 50 years,” said Josh Earnest, spokesman for the Democratic National Committee.
The government’s numbers last week not only showed continued job growth in January, but new higher revised figures for December showed payrolls grew by 140,000, with the broad job gains in construction, manufacturing, education and health care.
Some economic consultants say Mr. Bush and the Republicans would get more credit for the improving economy if they talked more about it and the tax cuts they put in place to spur jobs and economic growth.
“I think promoting the economy and the effects of the tax cuts is the natural thing for the White House to do at this point,” said David Smick, an international economic consultant.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.