Democrats dream big in South, West

The battle for control of the Senate has turned fiercely competitive this summer, driven in part by a flurry of articles reporting that the Democrats are poised to recapture the chamber where Republicans have a slim 51-48 majority, with one independent.

But some Senate campaign analysts say these stories are overplaying the Democrats’ chances in strongly Republican states in the South and West, and they predict Republicans will emerge with a net gain of a seat or two after the fall elections.

The report “Will the Senate Tip?” in this month’s issue of the Nation magazine all but forecasts a Democratic takeover. “If the Democrats re-elect their incumbents, hold three of the five [open Democratic] Southern seats and win the four GOP-held seats outside the South, where they are currently running strong, they’re at 51.”

In another article, titled “Dreaming About the Senate,” Time magazine reported last week that “suddenly the math has changed: Democrats can see their way to a net gain of two seats, which would give them a slim advantage in the Senate.”

That is not how Jennifer Duffy, Senate elections analyst for the Cook Political Report, sees things. Asked whether these reports are exaggerated, she replies, “Absolutely. These Southern Senate races are far from a done deal.”

“There’s no question that the Senate is competitive and is in play, and over the past few months Democratic opportunities have gotten better,” said Nathan Gonzales, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, which closely tracks all House and Senate races.

Both parties agree that 11 Senate races are competitive. Seven of those are held by Democrats.

Analysts agree that the outcome likely will be decided in the South, where Democrats must defend five open seats in states where Republican strength has been building. Among them:

• Georgia: The clear front-runner is Rep. Johnny Isakson. He is being challenged in the Republican race by Rep. Mac Collins and Herman Cain, chief executive of Godfather’s Pizza.

Democrats must choose between freshman Rep. Denise L. Majette and businessman Cliff Oxford, who are given little chance of winning the November election.

• Louisiana: Republican Rep. David Vitter is leading in all the polls and has $3.4 million in cash. Democrats, on the other hand, are embroiled in a party fight among Rep. Chris John, state Treasurer John Kennedy and state Rep. Arthur Morrell.

• North Carolina: Erskine Bowles, former Clinton White House chief of staff, is making his second run for the Senate after losing to Elizabeth Dole in 2002. This time, he leads in the polls against his Republican opponent, Rep. Richard M. Burr, 47 percent to 39 percent. But Republicans say Mr. Bowles has been spending a bundle of money on TV ads for months, while Mr. Burr has not gone on the air — holding his campaign funds in reserve.

• South Carolina: Republican polls show Democrat Inez Tenenbaum, the state superintendent of education, leading Rep. Jim DeMint, a Republican, by 53 percent to 43 percent. In a heavily Republican state, which President Bush carried by 16 points in 2000, she is running as a centrist, supporting the war in Iraq, a constitutional amendment against same-sex “marriage,” the death penalty and the USA Patriot Act.

But she is pro-choice, and her ideological views on other issues are not well-known.

cFlorida: Betty Castor, former state education commissioner, remains the Democratic front-runner for her party’s nomination, but that could change. She is being attacked by one of her chief Democratic rivals, Rep. Peter Deutsch, for not firing a suspected terrorist when she was the University of South Florida’s president in the 1990s. Deutsch strategists say they intend to pound her with attacks in TV ads in the weeks to come.

On the Republican side, former Rep. Bill McCollum, who lost a 2002 Senate bid, is leading a large Republican field of contenders, including former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez. But Mr. McCollum’s poll numbers have not budged in months while Mr. Martinez, who has the backing of the White House and has raised $1.75 million in the past quarter, has seen his poll numbers rise in recent weeks, fueled in part by his appeal in the Hispanic community.