The al Qaeda-inspired terrorist army in Iraq ultimately wants to capture Baghdad International Airport and begin a campaign to destabilize neighboring Jordan, an important U.S. ally, analysts say.
The Islamic State organization — formerly the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant — is attempting to move within striking distance as Iraqi officials in Baghdad on Wednesday reported discovering the bodies of 50 men in a possible sectarian massacre.
Seizing Baghdad’s commercial transportation hub would be a giant step toward isolating the Shiite majority government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. It also would advance its goal of taking the capital itself, thereby endangering thousands of Americans who might need a quick evacuation.
“ISIL is ultimately going to assault Baghdad and probably close down Baghdad International Airport within the next couple of weeks,” said Larry Johnson, a former State Department counterterrorism official. “They are moving methodically, consolidating their gains and reinforcing positions — not just trying to go running around with their hair on fire.”
Mr. Johnson said the Iraqi security forces are not competent enough to defend the airport on their own.
“There is genuine concern we would not be able to get our people out of there,” he said.
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A former Pentagon official who visits Iraq said the Islamic State may decide the best way to close the airport is through artillery and mortar barrages.
Iraq could counter with helicopter strikes and perhaps use the Soviet-designed Sukhoi attack jets that arrived last month.
“The airport is very vulnerable to artillery [and] mortar,” the former official said, adding that such attacks would have a deep psychological effect on residents of Baghdad and force air traffic to come to a halt.
Airport security is provided by Interior Ministry forces who, the source said, are likely to stand and fight but would need reinforcements.
The Islamic militants’ lightning sweep across northern and western Iraq in the past month has heightened tensions between the country’s Shiite majority and Sunni minority. At the same time, splits have grown between the Shiite-led government in Baghdad and the Kurdish autonomous region in the north.
In an address Wednesday, Mr. al-Maliki accused the Kurdish zone of being a haven for the Islamic State and other Sunni insurgents, The Associated Press reported. He did not provide any evidence, and the claims are likely to further strain Baghdad’s ties which the Kurds, whose fighters have been battling the militant advance in the north.
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The men’s bodies, all of them with gunshot wounds, were found in the predominantly Shiite village of Khamissiya, outside the city of Hillah, which is some 60 miles south of Baghdad, said military spokesman Brig. Gen. Saad Maan Ibrahim.
The dead men were ages 25 to 40, and it appeared they had been killed a few days earlier and their bodies dumped in the remote area, said a local police officer and a medical official. Many of them were blindfolded and had their hands bound.
The Islamic State, which an intelligence source says has at least 3,000 fighters in Iraq, now effectively controls the Iraq side of border crossings into Jordan. It does not have the firepower to confront Jordan’s armed forces loyal to King Abdullah.
But it is now in a better position to execute terrorist attacks and foment revolt.
“Jordan is their next stated objective,” said retired Army Gen. John M. Keane, an architect of the 2007 U.S. troop surge that greatly damaged ISIL’s predecessor, al Qaeda in Iraq.
“Think about the problem the Jordanians have,” Mr. Keane said. “They’ve got a 350-kilometer border on one side with Syria and a 175-kilometer border on the other side with Iraq, and both areas are controlled and influenced by ISIL. Jordan is facing a very real threat.”
Said Mr. Johnson: “Jordan still has a very effective army. The concern throughout the region is nobody trusts the United States. They don’t trust the United States anymore to act in an appropriate manner to protect their interests.”
A landlocked, mostly Sunni kingdom bordering the Arabian Peninsula, Jordan is one of only two Arab nations that have signed a peace agreement with Israel. The other is Egypt.
Asked whether Jordan is next for the Islamic State militants, a U.S. intelligence official said, “ISIL’s goal includes establishing an Islamic caliphate and fighting the United States, according to its own spokesperson.”
Mr. Keane said the Islamic State will follow a blueprint it executed in Mosul: months of methodical terrorist attacks and assassinations.
“ISIL will not march on Jordan as they did in northern Iraq. The Jordanian air force would blow them off the road,” he said. “They will return to terrorist activities and recruit and exploit radical Islamist movements inside of Jordan.
“They’ll connect to those movements in Jordan and pump new recruits into them,” he said. “They’ll cross the borders and conduct terrorist activities themselves from the sanctuaries of Iraq and Syria.”
The U.S. military is flying about 50 surveillance flights daily over Iraq, using manned and unmanned craft, to assess the Islamic State and map targets.
An assessment team made up mostly of U.S. special operations forces has nearly completed a report to the Pentagon on the readiness of the Iraqi security forces. Many members fled when Islamic State militants broke out of Mosul a month ago and started taking villages and towns.
“The assessment will likely be pretty dire,” said Robert Maginnis, a retired Army officer. “After all, half of the divisions already crumbled, and what little political confidence there was for al-Maliki is rapidly evaporating. I see little hope Iraqi forces can recapture the lost territory without help.”
• This article is based in part on wire service reports.