- The Washington Times - Tuesday, July 21, 2015

ANALYSIS/OPINION:

Well at least it’s not a trillion dollar race. Well, not yet anyway. Voters may want to prepare for an unprecedented onslaught of political advertising as the 2016 presidential race fires up and barrels across the nation. It’s going to be a $4.4 billion election, predicts Elizabeth Wilner, an analyst at the Cook Political Report.

“We could see less than $4.4 billion on TV if the GOP primary drags on, or more than $4.4 billion if it wraps up fast. We could see less than $4.4 billion if Democratic billionaires don’t bring their A-game for Clinton, or more than $4.4 billion if they do,” she says.

“We also could see more than $4.4 billion if California produces a juicy slate of ballot initiatives. Overall, we see slightly more upside than downside in this early estimate of 2016 political TV ad spend,” Ms. Wilner writes in her analysis.

There’s a bonanza waiting on the local level. A plump chunk of the amount goes to the local market. “Of this $4.4 billion, we expect $3.3 billion to go to local broadcast TV,” she adds.

Find the research here: CookPolitical.com.

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