OPINION:
Next year, President Obama leaves office, but don’t expect him to leave America’s political stage. Nothing in Mr. Obama’s past or present suggests that his future has him forsaking the spotlight he loves. If he performs to form, his penchant for attention will have big implications for U.S. politics for some time.
Leaving the White House, all former presidents face a difficult journey from America’s political focal point to its historical footnote. What can they do without also encroaching on the current president’s responsibilities? Perhaps more than any former president, Mr. Obama’s transition is likely to be one of the hardest — not just for him, but future administrations.
First, the president will have lots of time to fill, because he will be just 57 in 2017. Second and more importantly, Mr. Obama clearly adores public attention, and sees himself worthy of it. That’s why, just two years into his Senate term, he began running for president.
In addition to being personally inclined to “stick around,” there will be ready opportunities to do so.
Even among former presidents, Mr. Obama stands out in ways that invite his continued political participation. He is the first Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt to win two presidential elections with popular majorities. He retains a powerful political organization and will certainly remain an exceptional fundraiser.
Mr. Obama also holds something many former presidents do not: a core constituency. His second term has taken a decisive turn to the left, and the left will continue to revere him — not unlike the right did Reagan — when he leaves office.
Obviously within the Democratic Party, Mr. Obama will have opportunity for an active post-presidency political role. No Democrat can hope to win the White House next year — and perhaps longer — without Mr. Obama’s support. Further, no Democrat can hope to govern without it, either. Even Republicans — for whom the president’s opposition is a badge of honor — would have to be wary of the Obama effect on congressional Democrats.
Just because Mr. Obama will have inclination and, with Democrats, an openness to his further political activity, will he have an invitation? Will there be policy and political openings for his re-entry? In a word: Ample.
Openings for Mr. Obama’s return to a prominent post-office role will come from the things he did — and did not do — while in office. After eight years, there are many major policy areas in need of fixing and others simply in need of addressing — foreign policy problems, immigration, taxes, spending, the economy, even his namesake Obamacare.
Moreover, Mr. Obama’s reliance on executive power, in lieu of legislation, lessens his successor’s ability to do the same. That means even a Democratic president will find it more necessary to work with Congress in general, and Republicans in particular. Such bipartisan overtures will only increase Mr. Obama’s leverage with the left to counter such efforts.
While in office, Mr. Obama has been more focused on his legacy than any president in recent memory. How much more focused will he be when he has nothing to do but defend it? And he will have a lot of defending to do. There will be immediate actions to repeal, replace or at least revamp large parts of it. Expect Mr. Obama to respond just as quickly.
Finally, real solutions to America’s pressing problems will demand bipartisan cooperation. Bipartisan cooperation is something Mr. Obama never mastered as president, where his greatest accomplishments came either in his first two years when Democrats controlled Congress, or by executive action.
During his second term, the president has been freed from re-election concerns. Once out of office, he and his liberal core supporters will be in a position to undermine bipartisan cooperation — regardless of whether a Democratic or Republican administration seeks it.
Do not expect Mr. Obama to resemble Narcissus, the figure of Greek mythology who retreated from the world and spent the rest of his days gazing at his own reflection. Narcissus disdained those who sought him; Mr. Obama pursues them. There will be numerous chances for him to do so.
Mr. Obama will be able to play without paying. Out of office, he will have no responsibility to achieve anything and every incentive — as well as ready means — to block changes to his legacy.
As president, Mr. Obama has seemingly sought out controversial policies and the means to enacting them when there were costs to doing so. Without the constraints of office, how much more can he achieve by rousing his core supporters and bringing attention to himself?
Mr. Obama is unlikely to go away quietly. Instead, he can be expected to find ways to stay on America’s political stage. And the political costs he will then accrue will burden the next administration, and possibly several to come.
• J.T. Young served in the Treasury Department and the Office of Management and Budget, and as a congressional staff member.
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