Nov. 26, 2018
Chicago Tribune
Global warming is a Midwest crisis in the making
Did the autumn blizzard that snarled Monday’s commute send a message on climate change? Deniers likely took comfort. As President Donald Trump smugly tweeted last week when he saw a wintery forecast: “Whatever happened to Global Warming?”
For the rest of us, though, who accept the science, this storm - one of the worst November storms to hit the Chicago area - was a reminder: Weather extremes are costly and dangerous. Prepare for more.
Certainly one snowfall was neither proof of climate change nor a rebuttal; it was an individual event and not unprecedented. But look at Monday’s damage from downed power lines and trees - the lost productivity and general inconvenience. Think about how unusual it was to contend with as much as a foot of snow on Nov. 26. Then imagine the worldwide impacts of such intensified weather phenomena as melting snow caps, pelting rains, catastrophic heat waves. That’s the troubling future, unless humans take aggressive action to clean the atmosphere of greenhouse gases that are warming the planet.
On Friday, the federal government released a devastating scientific report anticipating the long-term effects of global warming to the United States. It makes for frightening reading by seeming to turn the world upside-down. Rising seas could drive millions of Americans inland. Decreases in oxygen levels in the oceans will kill coral reefs and deplete fishing catches. But warmer winters will expand the territory of bark beetles, which will harm trees. Severe weather will cause bridges, roads and rails to crumble. Forests will burn. Water shortages in the West will intensify. Phoenix could suffer through 90 days a year of 110-degree heat (versus 10 such days a year of extreme heat recently).
For the Midwest, the report warns that sopping rains will damage crops, then heat waves will fry them. Humid conditions will spur the growth of pests and pathogens that will degrade the quality of stored corn or soybeans. Before mid-century, the report says, Midwest agricultural productivity will slip back to levels of the 1980s.
The authors pull no punches on the existence of climate change. The global average temperature increased by about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit from 1901 to 2016. There is no credible natural explanation.
“The evidence consistently points to human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse or heat-trapping gases, as the dominant cause,” the report says.
With the science settled, this report - required by Congress - focused on the long-term impacts, including the economic toll. Unless steps are taken to mitigate warming, climate change could cost hundreds of billions of dollars a year: losses from the agricultural sector, tourism, the reduced efficiency of power generation, damage to infrastructure and more.
It’s a travesty - as well as an oddity - that Trump aligns himself with the minority of doubters on climate change. His interest in downplaying the risks no doubt relates to his commitment to freeing energy and manufacturing companies of tough environmental regulations in order to encourage job growth. Yet the report argues persuasively that Trump would get burned by his own thinking in the long run: The economy will decline if temperatures continue to rise.
Maybe the president will wake up to the threat. Otherwise, members of Congress can take the lead to re-establish priorities that include reducing carbon emissions from coal plants and vehicles. The public also has an important say - as voters, yes, but also as consumers who can choose environmentally friendly products and therefore push companies to act.
As Gary Yohe, an economics and environment expert at Wesleyan University, told the Washington Post, “We have wasted 15 years of response time. If we waste another five years of response time, the story gets worse.”
Or, to think more positively: It’s not too late to act.
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Nov. 23, 2018
The (Champaign) News-Gazette
A job worth having?
During the recent gubernatorial campaign, incumbent Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner fought hard to keep his job while eventual winner - Democrat J.B. Pritzker - worked just as hard to take it away.
Billionaire Pritzker outspent multimillionaire Rauner, investing $170 million-plus of his own money in the effort to take the reins of the state’s executive branch of government.
Campaigns are, of course, exciting, and the thrill of the competition can blind the participants. That’s why those at the edge of the political frenzy were not only watching with interest but wondering aloud why anyone would want to be, at least under current circumstances, the governor of Illinois.
Sure, the job comes with power, prestige, perks, patronage - all the things that make the heads of our state’s politicos swell with self-admiration.
But being governor of Illinois brings an even bigger “P’’ word - problems. They’re mostly financial problems. That’s because whatever Illinois tries to do - good or bad - takes money.
Illinois’ financial problems are acute, and, according to a recent report from the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget, they’re growing worse by the day.
It’s difficult, of course, to read the future. But the GOMB is projecting if current patterns in revenues and expenditures hold, state budgets will run deficits of roughly $3 billion for the next five years.
Deficit budgets are nothing new in Illinois. The Legislature hasn’t passed a balanced budget since the early 2000s, even though the Illinois Constitution requires that spending not exceed revenue.
State officials get around that legal requirement with a mixture of budget gimmicks that create a paper balance.
What happens when the state spends far more than it takes in year after year after year.
It doesn’t pay its bills, The GOMB estimates that by the 2024 fiscal year, Illinois’ unpaid bills will total $24 billion, more than half of that year’s estimated revenue of $41.5 billion.
Those numbers will either be aggravated or mitigated by the policies adopted by Pritzker and the Democrats who control the General Assembly.
These disturbing numbers come even in the face of the Legislature’s dramatic 32 percent state income tax increase. The new flat rate of 4.95 percent boosted state revenues by an estimated $5 billion.
That’s a lot of money. But even that sizable increase makes little difference if our elected officials are determined to spend even more.
The increase in unpaid bills is just one of the consequences of this state’s chronic financial mismanagement.
For those with the stomach for more bad news, Robert Posen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology reports investors in Illinois bonds are “sitting on time bombs” along with those who purchases bonds from Connecticut, New Jersey and Hawaii.
“Between 35 percent and 51 percent of their annual revenues are likely to be needed to meet their total annual payments on existing debt, retirement plans and retiree health care,” Posen wrote for Marketwatch.
Needless to say, devoting that huge percentage of revenues to state debt and retirement percentages will make it impossible to properly fund core state services.
None of this is, of course, set in stone. But the public officials who’ve charted this current course of fiscal disaster are living in a world with make-believe budget numbers.
Illinois must change. Will it? Can it? To this point, the answer is an emphatic no.
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Nov. 25, 2018
The (Carbondale) Southern Illinoisan
Fixing state’s woes far more important than party politics
The recent elections changed the political dynamic on both the state and federal level.
Illinois elected Democrat J.B. Pritzker as governor, replacing Bruce Rauner, the one-term Republican incumbent.
Rauner and the Democrat-controlled General Assembly engaged in a reckless, costly game of political chicken. Illinois had well-documented financial issues when Rauner assumed office. The two-year testosterone-driven budget stalemate imposed on the citizens of Illinois only exacerbated those issues.
Thankfully, some semblance of sanity was finally restored, but the state is still faced with a long road back to financial stability.
Those types of shenanigans are unlikely with one-party control, but the time is long past where one party should be intent on imposing its will on the other. No single party has a monopoly on good ideas - if that were true, there would only be one party.
The time is now for Republicans and Democrats to put the good of the state over the party.
Downstate Republicans took party line votes during the budget standoff and in regard to the new school funding formula. Given the progress that has been made in paying down the state’s backlog of bills since a budget agreement was reached, those votes look ill-advised.
Was there political pressure for the Republicans not to vote for the budget? Absolutely.
Gov.-elect Pritzker has the opportunity to change that dynamic. Yes, we are well aware of the counter argument that Speaker Mike Madigan is responsible for the state’s political ill-will. Even if that were 100 percent accurate, the governor has a major voice and the largest bully pulpit in the state.
He can push the re-set button.
Conversely, being in the minority, our local representatives and senators have their work cut out for them. In order to be effective voices for our region, they will certainly have to work across the aisle. Some have proven willing to do that, others not so much.
We may be wishing upon a star, but with a new governor we can hope that the art of compromise makes a comeback.
The situation is much the same on the federal level where Mike Bost and John Shimkus are now part of the House minority.
Given the level of dysfunction in Washington, being part of the minority may actually give Bost and Shimkus political cover. Hopefully, they will be able to reach across the aisle and forge agreements and compromises without fear of retribution from the White House.
Americans are tired of gridlock, tired of the incessant political bickering. Like our state politicians, their effectiveness will be based on their ability to compromise.
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