NEWS AND OPINION:
When Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump in 2016, many Democrats wept openly, particularly those who were in the audience at Mrs. Clinton’s election night rally as the news broke. Similar emotions are already percolating. Blame it on nonstop alarmist coverage of the news media, perhaps, but some voters already are poised to quake, shake, or cry over the very real prospect that President Trump could win in 2020.
How do we know? A voter poll of course, this one from Fox News — which simply asked people how they would react to a Trump victory. Partisan divides are very much intact.
Exactly 30% reported they would be “scared.” That number includes 55% of Democrats, 27% of independents and 4% of Republicans.
But wait, 21% also said they would be “enthusiastic,” the poll found. That includes 44% of Republicans, 7% of independents and 4% of Democrats. Another 20% said they would be “displeased” if Mr. Trump won, a feeling shared by 5% of Republicans, 27% of independents and 30% of Democrats.
Still 15% would be “pleased” with a Trump victory (32% of Republicans, 7% of independents, 3% of Democrats). Last but not least, 13% declared they were “neutral” in the matter; that includes 14% of Republicans, 29% of independents and 7% of Democrats.
All these confusing numbers, however, bode well for Mr. Trump.
“More voters would be enthusiastic if Trump were to win reelection than felt that way in 2016 — and fewer would be scared. The share of those feeling enthusiastic is up 8 points since October 2016 overall and up 18 among Republicans. The number of voters feeling scared is down 16,” reports Fox News polling analyst Dana Blanton.
HOLLYWOOD’S SCRIPT FOR THE PRIMARIES
The 2020 presidential election is approaching like a very fast train. Some in Hollywood have already done the math and figured a unique angle on what portends to be a dramatic election season.
“By a quirk of fate, next year’s earliest-ever Academy Awards date will align with a heavily front-loaded presidential primary schedule. Oscar night comes six days behind the Iowa caucuses, on Feb. 3, and just two days before the New Hampshire primary, on Feb. 11. More portentously, Super-Tuesday, with 13 state primaries, is less than a month behind the Oscars, on March 3 — and this year, California, with its massive electoral load, will join those early primary states,” writes eagle-eyed Michael Cieply, executive editor of Deadline Hollywood.
“Anyone who doesn’t think dozens of sharp Democratic political consultants aren’t scanning the release schedules, festival rosters, contender lists, and compendia of possible star presenters for potential advantage just isn’t thinking. A California-based Oscar show in the middle of a heated primary season is a target too rich to ignore,” Mr. Cieply observes.
FOR THE LEXICON
Handy word deployed by Andrew Ferguson, a staff writer for The Atlantic, who puts it this way: “Tyranny of the 70-somethings: The Democratic Party’s gerontocracy is holding back the political causes it claims to want to advance.”
The word itself was first used in 1830, according to dictionary maven Merriam-Webster, with both the noun “gerontocrat” and adjective “gerontocratic” in current use.
In a related note, the term “zillennials” has been in use for about a year, and it describes someone born after 1995. Why do we wonder about zillennials at this juncture?
“Young left-wing radicals could help re-elect President Trump,” writes New York Post analyst Mary Kay Linge, who notes that this demographic wants nothing to do with common-sense moderation at the moment.
“It also spells trouble for every one of the Democrats’ 24 declared candidates, because the very qualities that could allow them to appeal to a broad swath of voters in the general election make a politician anathema to the intersectional left,” she says.
Some 6,000 Mexican National Guard troops are set to begin patrolling their nation’s southern borer with Guatemala. Press reports say that Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is now lobbying for international development aid to help Central Americans stay in their countries of origin. In the meantime, thousands of Central American migrants remain in Mexico, waiting for asylum petitions to the U.S. to be answered.
“In recent months, police and immigration have stepped up enforcement in southern Mexico, setting up highway checkpoints, raiding a caravan of mostly Central American migrants and trying to keep people off the northbound train known as ‘the beast.’ At the same time, Mexicans have grown increasingly intolerant of the large numbers of migrants passing through their country in an attempt to reach the U.S.,” writes Associated Press reporter Amy Guthrie, reporting from Mexico City.
“A June poll in Mexican newspaper El Universal showed that Mexicans are less receptive to allowing undocumented migrants to come in, or to stay on permanently as refugees,” she says. “A majority of Mexicans that participated in the survey said they favor barring entry to migrants who try cross into Mexico without visas, and a majority now say that Mexico should not offer them refugee status.”
Mexico’s southern border is “porous and difficult to patrol, with dense jungle and rivers,” Ms. Guthrie says.
“On Friday, a sociologist who served as Mexico’s immigration chief resigned and was replaced by the country’s director of prisons. Foreign Relations Secretary Marcelo Ebrard said an additional 825 immigration agents will be sent to the southern border next week,” she notes.
POLL DU JOUR
• 69% of U.S. voters favor increasing the number of border agents on the U.S.-Mexico border; 88% of Republicans, 67% of independents and 53% of Democrats agree.
• 67% overall favor increasing spending on U.S. border security measures; 81% of Republicans, 63% of independents and 56% of Democrats agree.
• 50% overall say President Trump’s enforcement of immigration laws “has gone too far”: 13% of Republicans, 46% of independents and 84% of Democrats agree.
• 42% overall favor building a wall on the southern border; 80% of Republicans, 29% of independents and 13% of Democrats agree.
• 24% overall say Mr. Trump’s immigration policy “has not gone far enough”; 47% of Republicans, 19% of independents and 5% of Democrats agree.
• 21% overall say his policy is “about right”; 36% of Republicans, 20% of independents and 7% of Democrats agree.
Source: A Fox News poll of 1,001 registered U.S. voters conducted June 9-12.
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