Even CNN now admits that the race between President Trump and Joseph R. Biden is close. Very close.
In an analysis released Thursday, senior political analyst Harry Enten wrote that Mr. Biden has had the “upper hand” in national polls and those conducted in such battleground states as Arizona and Florida.
“Yet, while Biden has maintained advantage, Trump has one thing going for him: His position is no longer deteriorating. A look at the polls shows that even as coronavirus cases and deaths rise, Trump remains within striking distancing of Biden,” Mr. Enten noted.
“An Iowa poll out Wednesday from Monmouth University makes the point well. Trump comes in with 48% to Biden’s 45%, a 3-point margin and a result within the poll’s margin of error,” he said.
Mr. Enten also cited a Des Moines Register survey which found Mr. Trump with 44% support, Mr. Biden at 43%. He pointed to other polling evidence, both state and national, which suggested a positive tilt for the president, noting that Mr. Trump’s ratings have stabilized — “and perhaps improved a few points.”
The influence of the coronavirus pandemic and ongoing civil unrest has also been a factor in voter sentiment, the analyst wrote.
“The current difference between the polls at this point and the result isn’t wide enough to suggest Biden has this locked away given how much polls have moved from this point to the election historically. Yes, Biden has held a relatively steady lead, which makes him a clear favorite,” Mr. Enten said.
“But in a year in which we are facing unprecedented circumstances, Trump is staying in the hunt,” he said.