Wind speeds fell dramatically last year, slowing turbines and decreasing renewable energy production across the United States, while billions of dollars were invested in building more wind power plants.
Wind energy proponents say breezes have increased this year, but critics warn that the dip last year demonstrates the risks to the stability of the energy grid when it is even partially reliant on renewable sources tied to weather.
“The intermittent, weather-dependent nature of wind turbines makes them such a bad fit with the grid,” said Ken Davis, a corporate executive with more than 40 years of experience in the electric and gas industry.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said electricity generation from wind turbines fell for the first time since the 1990s despite an additional 6.2 gigawatts of capacity from new plants.
Wind generation plunged 14% during the first half of 2023 from a year earlier, reducing the energy generated by the nation’s growing fleet of turbines.
NextEra Energy Resources, one of the nation’s top energy providers and the world’s largest producer of wind and solar, recently told investors that 2023 “was the lowest wind resource on record over the past 30 years.” The decline drove down share prices of the company’s renewable and storage portfolio.
Mark Morey and Scott Jell, analysts for the EIA, said the 2023 decrease indicates that wind as a power source in the nation’s energy grid “is maturing after decades of rapid growth.”
A steady increase in wind capacity more than tripled from 2010 to 2023, the EIA said, but slower wind speeds last year dropped the turbine reliability rate — the percentage of time turbines produce maximum power — to an eight-year low of 33.5%, down from 35.9% in 2022.
Wind turbines provided 10.2% of all U.S. electricity generation last year. Solar panels made up 3.9%, and hydropower provided 5.7%.
Most of the nation’s energy grid was powered by fossil fuels (60%) and nuclear power (18.6%), the EIA said.
The Department of Energy rated wind and solar energy as the least reliable sources. Nuclear, geothermal and natural gas are rated as the most reliable.
The North American Electric Reliability Corp., which promotes grid security and reliability, has repeatedly warned about the increase of weather-dependent renewables in the nation’s energy mix.
In its summer reliability assessment issued on May 15, the not-for-profit international regulatory authority warned of energy supply problems in extreme weather, when demand soars and wind peters out.
The addition of 25 gigawatts of solar energy can meet normal peak loads this summer, NERC said, but “energy risks are growing in several areas when solar, wind and hydro output are low.”
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which uses more wind generation in its power mix than anywhere else in the country, is at “elevated risk” of energy emergencies during extreme conditions this summer, partly because of wind generator performance, NERC officials said.
The U.S. has invested heavily in wind turbines and solar panels despite their lower reliability rates.
Robert Bryce, who has authored six books on energy, calculated that the federal government spent more than $30 billion on tax credits for wind production from 2004 through 2022.
Meanwhile, private companies invested $278 billion, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
“Thus, over the last two decades, the U.S. has spent more than $300 billion building 150 GW of wind capacity that has gobbled up massive amounts of land, garnered enormous (and bitter) opposition from rural Americans, and hasn’t gotten more efficient over time,” Mr. Bryce wrote on Substack.
Officials at EIA told The Washington Times that the outlook for wind generation is positive and turbines will continue to grow as a source of cheaper electricity in the U.S. grid.
The EIA predicts that wind turbines will pump 0.446 billion kilowatt-hours into the grid this year, up from 0.425 billion kilowatt-hours last year. The number is expected to grow to 0.461 billion kilowatt hours in 2025.
Wind turbines are expected to provide 11% of the U.S. energy mix next year, up from the 10.6% output projected for this year.
Solar is also on the rise. Last year, solar generated 5.5% of U.S. electricity, a 17.5% increase from 2022.
Mr. Morey, EIA’s senior electricity analyst, said U.S. wind output dropped last year after record-high production in 2022.
He said “2022 was a gangbusters year for wind speeds and generation. So one problem was that 2023 was being compared to an all-time record year.”
Mr. Morey said no matter how many turbines and solar panels are added to the mix, wind and solar require backup sources, typically nuclear and fossil fuels.
“This is very low-cost power. So when you integrate it into the rest of the system, it can substantially keep power costs under control,” Mr. Morey said. “But yes, there are steps that have to be taken by suppliers to make sure that they have sufficient backup power. So If wind or solar drops off suddenly, they have resources available to them.”
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