SEOUL, South Korea — Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Taiwan — East Asian nations allied or friendly with the United States — are nervously bracing for a second Trump administration.
President Trump’s second term in the White House will bring stern challenges in managing alliances and deterring regional adversaries.
China, North Korea and Russia, continental powers that extend in a vast regional arc from the Himalayas to Eurasia’s Arctic rim, are boosting their military prowess and forging deeper ties.
Russian and North Korean forces are battling together in Ukraine, and China is massively building out its military. Its expanding fleet, which already outnumbers the U.S. Navy in hulls, 234 to 219, poses a unique threat to coastal and maritime U.S. allies.
No single NATO-style U.S.-led defense network shields the four critical countries. Japan, South Korea and the Philippines have separate treaties with the U.S. but no overarching security architecture. Taiwan lacks any defense treaty with the United States. It relies on what the State Department calls “a robust unofficial relationship” — a tradition of military support cloaked in strategic ambiguity.
The Biden administration labored to expand and deepen a web of “mini-lateral” regional defense relationships, but none had the heft of the countries’ respective ties to the U.S.
Concerns have been whispered about an “America First” president who has focused on the U.S. cost of Asian alliances in the past and has made clear that no ally will get a “free ride.” Mr. Trump has also vowed to get tough on Japan and South Korea, which have significant trade surpluses with the U.S.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who has spoken favorably of an “Asian NATO,” conceded to reporters in Tokyo on Tuesday that Mr. Trump prefers “bilateral, rather than multilateral, arrangements.”
Japan hopes to buttress Mr. Trump’s financial demands by massively purchasing cutting-edge U.S. weapons, notably 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles and 147 F-35s, the world’s largest fleet of stealth fighter jets outside the U.S.
Japan’s Asahi Daily reported Tuesday that Japanese government officials had been holding closed-door “Trump Response Team” meetings since Mr. Trump’s election victory in November. Mr. Trump’s promised tariffs are a top concern. Some are urging the government to take a tough line despite the long-standing bilateral alliance.
“It doesn’t help to have a Japanese prime minister who is going to kowtow to the president,” Ado Machida, a former policy adviser to Mr. Trump, told Kyodo News. He advised Mr. Ishiba to adopt a “Japan first” mindset.
U.S.-Japanese relations were rocked by President Biden’s decision after the election to block the bid by Japan’s Nippon Steel to acquire U.S. Steel, citing national security concerns. Mr. Trump has also made clear that he wants U.S. Steel to remain in American hands.
Japan has withstood challenges by the Chinese coast guard and fishing fleets to the unoccupied Senkaku Islands, known in China as the Diaoyu Islands, and is sympathetic to Taiwan. Tokyo also wants to strengthen ties with South Korea, but huge uncertainties also hang over that relationship.
Paralyzed South Korea
Seoul is trapped in policy paralysis as it deals with the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, who made his first appearance at the Constitutional Court on Tuesday. The court has 173 days to uphold or overturn Mr. Yoon’s impeachment. If Mr. Yoon is forced out of office, a presidential election must be held within 60 days.
Acting President Choi Sang-mok sent a message insisting that South Korea “looks forward to Making the Alliance Great Again in the 47th presidency, as we have during the 45th.”
South Korea has only a minor territorial dispute with China over a submerged reef at the entrance to the Yellow Sea. Unlike Japan, its lawmakers are loath to express support for Taiwan.
Still, its capital lies within 35 miles of a bristling arsenal of North Korean weaponry, including nuclear warheads.
Speaking to reporters Monday, Mr. Trump made a passing reference to North Korea as a “nuclear power.” Some South Koreans fear he might unilaterally recognize Pyongyang as a nuclear state. Previous U.S. administrations declined to do so as they sought the complete denuclearization of North Korea.
Another concern is a possible resumption of Mr. Trump’s diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, which during his first term primarily bypassed Seoul. Speaking via video to U.S. troops in South Korea after his inauguration Monday, Mr. Trump joked, “How’s Kim Jong-un doing? I developed a pretty good relationship with him, though he is a tough cookie.”
The view from Manila and Taipei
The Philippines cannot boast the high-tech military prowess of Japan and South Korea, though it is home to U.S. bases that expanded under Mr. Biden.
Manila is also facing a determined pressure campaign from China as Beijing seeks control over a series of disputed reefs, shoals and fishing grounds in the South China Sea.
High-tech Taiwan does not have a formal defense alliance with the U.S. but has leverage the Philippines lacks. It hosts the foundries that make the world’s leading semiconductors crucial to global industry.
Chinese naval and air forces and diplomatic coercion from Beijing are tightening their squeeze on the island. Some analysts, predominantly in the U.S., fear China is preparing for an invasion of Taiwan, and Mr. Trump’s comments on the Taiwanese-U.S. relationship have raised concerns.
In July, Mr. Trump shook the island when he said Washington acted as “an insurance company” for Taiwan. His former vice president, Mike Pence, met with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te last week. Mr. Lai thanked Mr. Pence for upgrading defense ties with the U.S.
Hours after Mr. Trump’s inauguration, the island’s opposition-controlled legislature voted to freeze defense funds. Some fear the move could anger Mr. Trump and play into China’s hands.
Manila and Taipei may take comfort from statements by Mr. Trump’s secretary of state, Marco Rubio, a former Republican senator and China hawk sworn into office Tuesday.
Speaking to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Thursday, Mr. Rubio warned China against acting “rashly or irrationally” toward Taiwan or the Philippines.
“The actions they are taking now are deeply destabilizing,” he said. “They are forcing us to take counteractions because we have commitments to the Philippines, and we have commitments to Taiwan that we intend to keep.”
Contact the author
Please read our comment policy before commenting.