Calculating a new regime in Iran

OPINION:

In war, the enemy always gets a vote. Iran is exercising that option in its war with the United States.

Despite having its nuclear capability significantly damaged, its regime largely decapitated, its missile and drone stocks greatly reduced, its conventional military destroyed and its economy in shambles, Iran continues to resist acceding to U.S. demands to end the war.

Part of its intransigence is rooted in an existential reality. If it agrees to U.S. demands, the current radical regime, led by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remnants, will be further delegitimized as the surviving governmental authority.

So it continues to fight with dwindling stocks of deadly munitions, betting that the U.S. will tire of this war as it did with Vietnam in 1973.

The IRGC’s leadership, largely in hiding, remains a keen observer of U.S. politics. It knows that American voters are focused on economic issues, such as gasoline prices, ahead of the congressional midterm elections in November. It is counting on negative public opinion ahead of the election to compel President Trump to declare victory and eventually walk away from the conflict.

Mr. Trump is unlikely to do so, but the Islamo-psychosis evidenced by radical elements in Iran accepts continued suffering by innocent Iranians so long as it denies the U.S. a complete victory. For the IRGC, regime survival is paramount.

So far, the U.S. campaign in Iran has depended primarily on U.S. power in the form of air and naval warfare, which has devastated Iran. Many credible military experts believe that if there had been no pause in the conflict in April to engage in peace overtures, Iran’s regime would have collapsed by now.

Because it has not, the U.S. must recalculate the cost to be imposed on Iran, even if that entails additional burdens on our own defense capabilities.

U.S. efforts thus far have been impressive, but they are incomplete. From the beginning, the U.S. has failed to assemble an effective Western coalition to pursue this conflict the way it did before the Persian Gulf War in 1991.

In particular, it chose to leverage surprise — a legitimate principle of war — in initiating hostilities that offered a unique opportunity to decapitate the former regime. With little time to build a coalition in advance, the U.S. and Israel proceeded to inhibit Iran’s nuclear capabilities further while preempting its ballistic missile, air defense and naval forces.

All that was necessary, but insufficient. Iran continues to fight on with remaining missiles and abundant drones, striking Gulf neighbors and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

As it stands, the U.S. appears to be embarking on a war of economic attrition to compel Iran’s capitulation. This will not achieve the desired outcome, specifically an Iranian regime that abjures nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles and regional terror.

By engaging in fruitless on-again-off-again negotiations, the U.S. has lost momentum.

Momentum must be regained by implementing all elements of the principle of war, including a clearly defined objective; offensive operations to seize, retain and exploit the initiative; concentration of massed combat power at the decisive place and time; effective maneuver operations; unity of command; denial of the enemy’s advantage; surprise; and simplicity in executing operations.

Between now and the midterms, the Trump administration should build a coalition that will employ all the principles of war to destroy the IRGC cabal once and for all. The IRGC is Iran’s remaining center of gravity and must be eliminated.

The coalition must be configured to apply land, air, maritime, space and cyber combat domains — the core doctrinal elements of U.S. multidomain operations — to effect an Iranian revolt by its beleaguered population.

These IRGC thugs have calculated that sacrificing innocent Iranians is an acceptable measure to secure the regime’s survival. An effective coalition can reverse that calculus and upend the regime, creating provincial pockets of resistance in what could emerge as an Iranian democratic republic.

The coalition could initiate this by occupying Hormozgan Province and declaring its “liberation,” overlooking the Strait of Hormuz.

It is time to apply a new calculus in this war to achieve the one clear and indispensable objective: the creation of a new regime.

• L. Scott Lingamfelter is a retired U.S. Army colonel and combat veteran, a 1973 graduate of the Virginia Military Institute and author of “Desert Redlegs: Artillery Warfare in the First Gulf War.”