NEWS AND ANALYSIS:
China’s island building in the South China Sea is set to add a new military base to its string of bases now threatening control over the strategic waterway, according to satellite images of the island construction.
Construction has been underway for months at Antelope Reef, a disputed reef in the Paracel Islands claimed by China, Taiwan and Vietnam and located near the Vietnamese coast.
The reef expansion is the first by the Chinese since 2017. Antelope is on pace to become the largest synthetic feature in the South China Sea, potentially surpassing current Chinese military bases further south at Mischief Reef and other locations in the Spratly Islands.
Commercial spy satellite images provided by the SkyFi’s Vantor satellite reveal extensive reclaimed land at Antelope totaling about 1,490 acres. The images reveal that a harbor, wharf, two runways, military barracks and a helipad are being built. Piers capable of handling warships also can be seen.
The new deep-water harbor, pier and runways would give China a forward base close to Vietnam’s coast and strategic shipping lanes through the northern South China Sea.
Antelope, once militarized, would be the second major Chinese military base in the Paracels, which China seized from South Vietnam in 1974.
Nearby Woody Island is China’s main military base in the northern sea with an 8,900-foot runway, reinforced warplane hangars and HQ-9 surface-to-air missile batteries.
Additionally, an Aug. 18 Vantor satellite photo of Yagong, an islet eight miles from Antelope Reef, reveals construction of what analysts say is an early warning radar that would support military operations on the reef, Reuters reported Tuesday.
The airstrip at the new Antelope base would be the fifth military-length runway in the region.
In addition to Woody Island, China already has built military runways and missile emplacements on Mischief Reef, Subi Reef and Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly Islands closer to the Philippines.
Those three reefs are claimed by both China and the Philippines.
China affairs analysts say the Antelope construction is a further expansion of Beijing’s military in the sea that threatens a waterway that is used for an estimated $5 trillion in trade annually, commerce that could be choked off by the Chinese bases in a crisis or conflict.
The Asia Maritime Transparency Project, which uses satellite images to monitor Chinese activity in the sea, said in March that Antelope’s size allows it to be used for Chinese military goods, including power plants, underground storage facilities, coastal defense emplacements, surface-to-air and anti-ship missile facilities, and numerous surveillance and electronic warfare sites.
Retired Navy Capt. James E. Fanell said China is executing an aggressive island expansion campaign targeting Vietnam in the Paracels following construction of seven military bases in the Spratlys between 2013 and 2015.
The buildup is part of what he called a “might makes right” approach to expanding Beijing’s empire, similar to 19th century European expansionism.
The military base on Antelope will provide the People’s Liberation Army with an additional outpost to exert China’s illegitimate claims against Vietnam in the western portion of the South China Sea, near and within Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone, said Capt. Fanell, a former Pacific Fleet intelligence director.
“This naked aggression by Beijing to seize territory threatens the relative peace and stability that the South China Sea has enjoyed for the past 80-plus years,” Capt. Fanell said. “They must not be allowed to continue this theft without pushback from the USA and the rest of the civilized world.”
Rick Fisher, a China expert, said the soon-to-be completed air, missile and naval base at the reef will support sea control in connection to the PLA base at Scarborough Shoal that is 170 miles from Subic Bay, a new Navy ship repair base.
“It is long overdue for Washington to organize a major air-naval-missile equipment package for its Philippine ally, perhaps with Japan, with sale and lease options, or risk losing the South China Sea maritime artery to total Chinese control,” said Mr. Fisher, a senior fellow with the International Assessment and Strategy Center.
David Day, a China expert and chairman of the Global Risk Mitigation Foundation, said the construction at Antelope is a warning signal to Hanoi and part of China’s ongoing efforts to bolster and solidify its South China Sea territorial claims against rival claimants.
“While difficult to predict the precise military use at this stage, there is no question that Beijing is attempting to check further Vietnamese reef projects with its Antelope Reef project,” he said.
China’s Foreign Ministry has not commented on the recent Antelope Reef construction.
The Chinese Communist Party-affiliated outlet Global Times, however, reported Aug. 30 that foreign media were hyping construction at what Beijing calls Lingyang Jiao.
China working on AI-powered hypersonic missiles
The Chinese military is studying the use of artificial intelligence to boost the capabilities of its hypersonic missiles in defeating U.S. missile defenses, according to an Air Force think tank report.
However, the report by the China Aerospace Studies Institute questioned whether the added capability of the maneuvering high-speed missiles is real and will actually enable it to defeat new and advancing American missile defenses.
The report also warned that China could exploit its current advantage in hypersonic missiles during an invasion of Taiwan by using the missiles to threaten U.S. and allied intervention.
China’s two main hypersonic glide vehicles, or HGVs, are carried by DF-17 and DF-27 missiles and maneuver during flight to amplify their strike capabilities. “Yet questions remain about how maneuvers are achieved and the extent to which they can adjust to avoid defensive interceptors,” the Aug. 3 report said.
Most HGV maneuvers are programmed prior to launch using advanced computer algorithms. Chinese scientists at Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics are working on advanced AI-enabled neural networks for “intercept avoid” — eluding strikes from missile defenses that will allow the missiles to continue toward targets.
The research involves methods for sensing, analyzing and estimating the flight path of a hypersonic missile and learning and adapting flight patterns during flight.
The studies indicate that China since 2022 has been trying to improve its hypersonic strike weapons to evade both radar and anti-missile interceptors, the report said.
“The PLA has likely been exploring AI-enabled technologies to counter the Department of War’s nascent Golden Dome effort by engineering HGV guidance systems capable of evading defensive intercepts,” the report stated, noting that the research preceded the announcement of the new national missile defense and referring to the Trump administration’s unofficial name for the Department of Defense.
The Pentagon also is working on technology and systems to knock out hypersonic missiles and the PLA researchers are trying to stay ahead of the U.S. effort, the report said.
The AI-powered hypersonic missiles would seek to rapidly compute a command for avoiding anti-missile systems based on the dynamics of the offensive missiles.
The report said the Chinese process for defeating interceptor missiles would be helped by adding longer maneuver distance and range.
Ultra-high-speed hypersonic missiles are difficult for ground-, sea- and air-based radar to map in a continuous track because the weapons travel so fast they prevent sensing from one radar field to another — elements vital for targeting.
To deal with the threats, the Pentagon is working on new defense technologies. They include the Hypersonic Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor and Glide Phase Interceptor that will rely on high throughput from low- and medium-orbit satellites.
The two systems are expected to be key elements of the Golden Dome defense that will be used against hypersonic missiles.
With the U.S. military lagging both China and Russia in hypersonic missiles, the report warned that the PLA may seek to exploit the short-term window of its advantage in the missile strike capability to “create a denial zone or a specific attack perimeter, putting potential intruders at risk,” the report said, noting possible use in a Taiwan invasion.
“The concept here would simply be to annex Taiwan quickly using highly lethal, difficult-to-defend hypersonic weapons to prevent any U.S. and allied forces from successfully intervening to defend Taiwan,” the report said.
The goal would be to occupy Taiwan rapidly and then render any U.S. or allied counterattack too difficult.
China plans to use its DF-17 hypersonic missile against foreign military bases and warships in the western Pacific, the report said.
The Pentagon’s annual report on the Chinese military stated in 2024 that, according to published PLA writings, the DF-17 has advanced technology that can evade radar and interceptors. The 4,000-mile-range hypersonic DF-27 also can threaten U.S. territory. Newer hypersonic missiles include the YJ-15, YJ-19, YJ-17, and YJ-20 systems that can be air-, ground-, sea- and submarine-launched.
The intercept avoidance technology is the next step in PLA efforts to harden or defend the missiles’ guidance and networking from U.S. missile defenses, including the new systems being worked on.
PLA researchers are seeking to use AI-powered neural networks to learn interceptor flight paths, signals and sensor emissions and guidance specifics to help hypersonic missiles avoid them.
“However, it remains unclear whether PLA HGVs are now capable of intercept avoidance,” the report said, noting the difficulties of operationally integrating deep neural networks in the missiles.
Advanced U.S. interceptor technology also could spoof or confuse advanced Chinese hypersonic missile guidance as part of its attack capabilities, the report said.
And large fleets of U.S. satellites could be used to track AI hypersonic weapons and guide interceptors.
Tracking and targeting sensors also could be AI-powered to adjust their flight paths to hypersonic missile maneuvers to overcome the intercept avoidance, the report said.
• Contact Bill Gertz on X @BillGertz.
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