OPINION:
Iran’s contradictory behavior — negotiating over the Strait of Hormuz while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran-aligned forces escalate their attacks — reveals duplicity.
It also exposes a struggle between two theories of the regime’s survival.
One faction fears that confrontation will deepen Iran’s isolation and provoke another uprising. The other believes genuine accommodation with the United States would dismantle the permanent crisis on which the Islamic Republic’s political identity and machinery of repression depend.
A recent state television interview exposed the fear driving both camps. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi acknowledged that the scale and speed of the December-to-January uprising surprised the government. His interviewer, documentary filmmaker Javad Mogouei, said his subsequent investigation found that the Iranian city of Mashhad had effectively “fallen” for three to five hours.
Mr. Araghchi did not dispute the claim, giving it the weight of an implicit acknowledgment (although officials later denied Mr. Mogouei’s characterization).
If protesters could overwhelm the security apparatus in Iran’s second-largest city, even briefly, the opposition is not too weak to matter strategically. Helping Iranians communicate, organize and withstand repression would not mean Washington choosing Iran’s next government.
It would strengthen Iranians’ domestic capacity to end the regime’s threats from within while preserving the Iranian people’s right to determine their future.
President Trump therefore need not choose between open-ended war and an agreement that rewards Tehran for creating the crisis. He has a third option: Deter the regime abroad while raising the cost of repression at home.
Washington should defend freedom of navigation and impose costs for new attacks. But diplomatic or economic concessions should also require measurable steps: halting political executions, disclosing the fate of disappeared protesters, permitting access to political prisoners and restoring unrestricted internet service.
Targeted sanctions should be imposed on the judges, prison officials and security commanders responsible for repression, while secure communications and anti-censorship assistance should be given to help Iranians organize and document abuses.
This approach would deny hardliners the endless war they use to justify repression and rally the country around the flag.
Mashhad showed where the Islamic Republic is weakest. Iran’s people are not a humanitarian footnote to the conflict; they are the strongest leverage Washington has yet to use.
HAMID ENAYAT
Paris, France
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