Spain favored to win World Cup; U.S. given 1-in-60 shot

Spain enters the 2026 FIFA World Cup as the slight favorite to lift the trophy, according to a mathematical simulation that ran 1 million tournament projections — but the data also suggest an upset champion is more likely than at any recent edition of the tournament.

Steven Stern, a professor of data science at Bond University in Australia, built a predictive model using FIFA’s Elo-based rating system to calculate each of the 48 competing teams’ odds of advancing through every stage of the tournament. The Elo method assigns skill ratings to teams based on match outcomes and opponent strength, and updates those ratings after each result.

Spain emerged as the narrow front-runner at 15.8%, with France (15.6%), Argentina (15.3%) and England (11%) rounding out the only four nations given better than a 1-in-10 shot at the title. The model found that England’s odds trailed the other three favorites by a meaningful margin, attributable in part to a rating drop following a loss to Japan in March.

Mr. Stern’s research draws on the historical dominance of a small group of soccer powers. Looking back at the seven 32-team World Cups since 1998, he found that nine nations — Argentina, Brazil, Croatia, England, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain — accounted for 78.6% of all semifinalists and every single finalist. The last champion from outside that group was Uruguay in 1950.

The 2026 tournament, however, uses an expanded 48-team format with 12 groups of four, an additional knockout round, and 104 total matches — up from 64. FIFA designed the changes to broaden global participation and grow the sport in new markets.

The model suggests the expanded field is beginning to chip away, however modestly, at the traditional powers’ grip. The nine historically dominant nations are projected to account for roughly 54.2% of semifinal spots, down from the historical rate of 78.6%. The probability that the champion comes from that group is estimated at 72.6%, compared to a historical rate of 100% — though Mr. Stern noted that Italy’s failure to qualify for the tournament is a contributing factor.

For the United States, the model gives a 25.2% chance of advancing past the round of 16 and a 1.7% chance of winning the title. Canada, as a co-host, is given a 78.9% chance of escaping the group stage and a 0.3% shot at the championship. Australia sits at comparable odds, with a 67.1% chance of advancing from its group and a 0.3% title probability. New Zealand faces the steepest climb, with just a 19.5% chance of clearing the group stage.

The full simulation was published through The Conversation, an academic news outlet, and adapted by StudyFinds.