OPINION:
Global events often move at glacial speed, accelerated only by war. Since World War II, the Middle East has progressed in both ways because the region is rarely at peace.
Israel has been the progenitor of much of the Middle East’s change. Since it declared independence in 1948, which precipitated the attack by Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria and limited forces from Saudi Arabia and Yemen, Israel has been a thorn in the Arabs’ side.
After that, there was an enormous wealth transfer from the West to many Arab nations in exchange for their abundant oil. That alone has shaped much of the future of the Middle East and the alliances these nations have made.
Now comes our war against Iran, which will shape at least a part of the Middle East’s future. Everyone — China, Russia, Turkey, the NATO nations and even North Korea — wants to control the outcome. So do we and our Israeli allies.
Yet the loudest voices seem to be from the Arab nations, whose influence on the future is very much in the hands of others.
China and Russia want to thwart U.S. influence in the Middle East, but they are doing so in different ways. China, always desperate for oil, wants to control the flow from the Middle East, particularly Iran. That we are blockading Iran and preventing oil from going to China made last week’s summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi nearly a farce.
No progress could be made while China wants to pressure Iran and other nations, such as Iraq, into selling it cheap oil.
Iran, by seizing a Chinese “security ship,” showed that it will, when it suits the ayatollahs, demonstrate its contempt for China (unless the seizure was planned by both governments). False-flag games must be counted on, not just in the Middle East.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is not the odd man out in this mess. He has described Russia’s relationship with Iran as a “strategic alliance.” Anything he can do to interfere with American alliances in the Middle East (or anywhere else), he will do gladly. For example, he is apparently sharing intelligence information with Iran to help it defend against U.S. and Israeli attacks.
Turkey is the odd man out. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made no secret of his support for Iran. He has accused Israel of being a “terrorist state” and positioned Turkey as a dishonest broker of U.S. and Israeli peace efforts regarding Iran. His influence, though superficial, may yet have some effect, as demonstrated by the United Arab Emirates in its nervous quasi-alliance with Israel.
The UAE was one of the first nations to sign on to Mr. Trump’s historic Abraham Accords in 2020, promising to establish normal diplomatic, economic and security arrangements with Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu apparently visited the UAE a few weeks into the Iran war and held discussions with its leader, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
The UAE has been hit hard by Iranian missiles since the war began and has counterattacked with its own missiles. Still, the UAE, reflecting its fear of Iran, has denied that the Netanyahu visit took place. That is highly unusual in diplomatic relations. It confuses the UAE-Israeli relationship and poses enormous difficulties in those matters.
Even North Korea has chimed in on the Iran war. Its alliance with Iran is no secret, and Pyongyang has used it as proof that a strong nuclear arsenal is the only security against foreign military action.
So, what will the Middle East look like after the war?
Iran and its economy have been grievously damaged. Pressure, especially from European nations, for the U.S. to help rebuild Iran will mount. We must ignore it and go about further damaging Iran, which we are doing in our blockade of Iran’s ports.
Iran is still dangerous and will continue to be unless the ayatollahs’ regime is overthrown. Its missiles strike at will against its neighbors. It is possibly being resupplied with missiles and drones by the train that goes between Beijing and Tehran every few days.
To sum up, the face of the Middle East will not be greatly changed by our war against Iran. Iran need not heed North Korea’s warning that it must be nuclear-armed because it has every intention of becoming that despite President Trump’s protestations to the contrary.
• Jed Babbin is a national security and foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times and a contributing editor for The American Spectator.
Follow the author
Please read our comment policy before commenting.