One-sided ceasefire only serves Iran’s interests

OPINION:

The recent strike on the United Arab Emirates’ nuclear plant and recent Iranian attacks on shipping should have exposed the fallacy of the current “ceasefire.”

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is violating the ceasefire at will, proving once again that the government has no control over its uniformed religious zealots. It is obvious that the regime is just playing a waiting game, buying time to crush its opposition and for its sympathizers in the United States and elsewhere to drive President Trump to end the war with the regime intact.

It is time for the U.S. to end the violated ceasefire and failed talks game and either continue striking the regime to make it yield or walk away.

The game is one that jihadi groups and regimes have been playing for years. Yet, somehow, the West has not learned that jihadis enter such talks only to ensure their survival and gain a hiatus to reconstitute their forces and plan their next outrage.

Hamas and Hezbollah have been the primary practitioners, but Iran is a master as well. They claim to be interested in peace, gain a ceasefire and then reject all proposals in hopes their victim(s) simply will give up on a long-term peace and continue the ceasefire until the next terrorist attack.

The Iranian people cannot afford the regime gaining another respite, and, quite frankly, neither can the United States nor the Middle East.

Iran’s clerics have used every break in the fighting to “disappear” or murder regime critics and opponents, up to 50,000 to date just this year. The number of people suffering untold abuse in Tehran’s prisons remains unknown but is estimated at more than 100,000.

This latest ceasefire has enabled the regime to add to those numbers and kill dozens, if not hundreds, more of its citizens. More visibly, the IRGC has exploited it to restock its drone and missile inventories and attack shipping and Iran’s neighbors.

It is time to recognize and respond to Iran’s game. The regime is focused on its own survival, with its nuclear weapons program as a close secondary objective. Its peace deal offers are insincere and presented purely to gain breathing space. Once Mr. Trump backs off, they think, they will await what they believe will be an Iran-sympathetic midterm election result that leads to a return of the Democratic Party’s majority in the House (and possibly the Senate). The left has a well-known preference for appeasement policies, and these would sustain the regime’s income.

The regime will use those funds to finance its nuclear program and terrorist attacks on Western interests. It would not use them to benefit the Iranian people.

The IRGC is more than just the dominant influence over the government; it is now the governing authority directing the regime’s activities. Mr. Trump and his team should realize that and act accordingly.

The administration must maintain the Strait of Hormuz blockade, with the subtle twist of allowing ships destined for U.S.-friendly countries to carry their cargoes but not return to Iranian ports. That will relieve some of those countries’ immediate economic pressures but prevent any future Iranian profit.

Anything that hurts the regime financially is to the West’s advantage. The regime sees its people as sacrificial lambs to its nearly 50-year jihadi ambitions. At the same time, the Trump administration must take strong action to restore global oil exports, this time without breaks to appease Tehran’s nonexistent peace faction.

Mr. Trump’s Project Freedom offers a means to reinitiate the Persian Gulf’s oil exports. It will be slow going at first until confidence in ship and cargo safety is restored. Like all other defensive operations in war, it will succeed only if the enemy’s means of attacking the ships are devastated.

We must resume the bombing and strikes on IRGC facilities, units and cave exits. The IRGC claims suicidal bravery, but if it becomes almost suicidal to exit the caves to launch drones, missiles and fast-attack craft, a growing number will stay inside and underground. As the IRGC goes, so goes the regime.

Ultimately, the regime believes time is on its side. It needs only to survive to win, and it knows America’s midterm elections beckon. President Trump should recognize this.

The regime has been weakened, but that does not mean we should give it a respite. Rather, we must demonstrate that its primary chance for survival requires terminating its nuclear program through a mechanism that provides absolute proof of the program’s end. Anything short of that just kicks the can down the road and ensures a return to the appeasement policies of past administrations.

• Carl O. Schuster retired from the U.S. Navy as a captain after 25 years of service and was a university lecturer in history and military science until last year. He is a freelance writer with four books published, including a tutorial on the current war, “Israeli-US War on Iran: A Tutorial.”