Midterms are usually a referendum on the party in power. This one is also shaping up as a stress test for some of the biggest assumptions in American politics.
From the reliability of polls to the mainstream appeal of democratic socialists and the Democratic Party’s souring on Israel, voters will now have the final say.
Democrats see a potential blue wave that could hand them control of the House and Senate and put a check on President Trump. But they must win statewide in places Mr. Trump carried comfortably two years ago while fending off doubts about the Democratic Party’s socialists and far-left candidates.
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Mr. Trump also has a knack for turning out irregular voters and a history of outperforming the polls.
Across the country on Tuesday, the midterm elections will be a stress test, not just for the parties but for many of the assumptions that have shaped American politics.
Democrats’ rift over Israel
The midterms promise to provide the clearest verdict yet on the Democratic Party’s divisive debates about Israel.
The anti-Israel fervor that was once confined to the party’s far-left wing has moved toward the mainstream, raising questions about whether Democrats can win competitive races while abandoning the party’s longtime support for the Jewish state.
Michigan may provide the answer.
There, Abdul El-Sayed has built his Senate campaign in part around criticism of Israel and U.S. policy in the Middle East, winning over voters who say the party’s approach needs to change.
“Unconditional support for Israel, I can’t buy that anymore,” said Mike Krystyniak, a 72-year-old retired educator.
Mr. El-Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens in a primary that became a proxy battle over Israel, with AIPAC spending more than $30 million to boost Ms. Stevens’ unsuccessful campaign. The divide resurfaced Sunday when Ms. Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers in the Senate race, citing Mr. El-Sayed’s stance on Israel and saying Michiganers are “not about hate.”
“If El-Sayed wins in Michigan, it would demonstrate that Democrats who are highly critical of the U.S.-Israel relationship and strongly opposed to U.S. aid to Israel can succeed electorally even in purple states with a sizable Jewish population,” said Dov Waxman, professor of Jewish studies at the University of California.
Such a result, he argued, could embolden more Democrats to openly challenge AIPAC and traditional support for Israel, accelerating a shift already underway inside the party. But it could also deepen tensions with Jewish Democrats who remain strongly supportive of Israel.
Can a personal brand still beat partisanship?
Few politicians entered this cycle with a bigger bull’s-eye on their back than Sen. Susan M. Collins, Maine Republican, in her quest for a sixth term.
Ms. Collins was the Republican’s lone incumbent defending a competitive Senate seat in a state Mr. Trump lost in 2016, 2020 and 2024. On paper, she looked vulnerable.
Instead, she may end up rescuing Republicans’ hopes of holding the Senate.
The reason is the reputation she has built over nearly three decades in office. As chairwoman of the Appropriations Committee, Ms. Collins has spent years cultivating an image as an independent-minded senator willing to defy party leaders, including Mr. Trump, when she believes Maine’s interests demand it. The approach has frustrated conservatives and occasionally angered the president. It has also made her one of the state’s most durable political figures.
Democrats have seen this movie before. In 2020, polls consistently showed Ms. Collins trailing before she won reelection comfortably.
This year offered another opening. Democrat Graham Platner, an oyster farmer with a gravelly voice and outsider appeal, energized the party and briefly became a national political sensation before his campaign collapsed after a rape allegation. Democrats eventually turned to former state Senate President Troy Jackson, but his campaign has produced mixed reviews.
The broader question extends beyond Maine: Can political identity still matter more than party identity?
A Collins victory would suggest some politicians can still carve out a lane of their own. A loss would reinforce the growing belief that even the strongest personal brands are no match for today’s polarized politics.
A restless caucus turns on its own leader
A Democratic victory in Maine would not necessarily be welcome news for everyone in Democratic leadership.
If Mr. Jackson defeats Ms. Collins, it could strengthen a movement to replace Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer, New York Democrat.
“The Democratic Party needs to have a different approach — getting people back in the party, getting working-class, everyday people back in the party — and I don’t believe it’s going to happen with Senator Schumer,” Mr. Jackson said.
He is hardly alone. Democratic Senate candidates in Michigan, Minnesota, Kansas and Illinois have called for new leadership — and Mr. Schumer backed most of their opponents in the Democratic primaries.
It exposed a widening gap between the party’s establishment and an increasingly restless base eager for a new generation of leadership.
Mr. Schumer, who has served in Congress since 1981 and led Senate Democrats since 2016, faces questions that would have seemed unthinkable just a few years ago. The discussion has only intensified as speculation continues about a future challenge from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the far-left rockstar from New York who is also mulling a presidential bid.
The polling industry on trial
House Speaker Mike Johnson, Louisiana Republican, has a message for Republicans heading into Election Day: Ignore the polls.
Campaigning in Michigan over the weekend, Mr. Johnson argued that surveys showing Democratic momentum are failing to capture a large share of Republican voters.
“I’m telling you, the polls are wrong,” Mr. Johnson said. “I can’t find a Republican anywhere who’s responding to polls right now.”
The argument is familiar, but it has taken on renewed significance after years of polling misses involving Mr. Trump.
It appears that an increasing number of conservatives distrust pollsters and refuse to participate in surveys, creating blind spots in the tallies.
“People are afraid of being persecuted for their opinions, and a lot of them deal with that by just not answering polls,” said Republican pollster Robert Cahaly.
That debate now gets a real-world test.
The DSA’s biggest test yet
Another question is where exactly the Democratic Party is headed.
The success of Democratic Socialist of America-backed candidates in this year’s Democratic primaries proved that the ideology is no longer a fringe movement but an influential force inside the party. The election Tuesday will test whether a broader American electorate is ready for socialism.
Republicans wager voters are not.
Mr. Trump, delivering his closing argument Monday at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, put it this way: “The Democrats want to blow all of this up by electing communists, jihadists in the United States Congress. We will not allow that to happen.”
Democrats have tried to strike a delicate balance by embracing the energy and activism of the left flank while downplaying the socialism in their agenda.
That balancing act faces its biggest test yet on Tuesday with DSA-backed candidates on the ballot in roughly 30 states and the District of Columbia.
“This is not our fathers’ Democratic Party anymore,” Mr. Johnson said this weekend. “The party that we have known our whole lives no longer exists.”
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