Among all of the possible outcomes of the midterm Senate races, the one neither party wants is a 50-50 split.
It would leave Republicans with a technical majority, since Vice President J.D. Vance also serves as president of the Senate and can break any tie votes.
Whether that majority could function would depend in large part on GOP centrists, such as Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who could single-handedly derail confirmation of President Trump’s nominees.
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Mr. Trump has recently insulted Ms. Murkowski, calling her a “disgrace” and “Republicans’ worst senator.”
The legislative landscape would not be affected as much because most measures would still require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, which is what gives the minority party its power and has frustrated Mr. Trump throughout his presidency.
Party-line budget reconciliation bills — such as ones Republicans used this Congress to pass sweeping tax cuts and a three-year infusion of immigration enforcement funding — would likely be off the table. Ms. Murkowski is not a fan of reconciliation.
And if the midterm environment is favorable enough for Democrats to flip enough seats to end up with a 50-50 Senate — a net gain of three — then the party likely won control of the House. Republicans need control of both chambers to pursue another reconciliation effort.
For Democrats, falling short of clinching the Senate majority would mean they could not force votes on whatever bills their party passes out of the House, which removes a key pressure point for Republican cooperation.
However, Democrats do gain some additional leverage in the event of a 50-50 split because Senate leaders would need to negotiate what is known as a powersharing agreement.
“The Senate has organized itself basically by each side coming together and agreeing to adopt these resolutions,” former Senate parliamentarian Alan Frumin told The Washington Times. “Neither side filibustered them, and that’s how 50-50 Senates in 2001 and 2021 were able to organize.”
In the 2000 election, Republicans lost seats in the Senate despite George W. Bush winning the presidential election.
Facing the first modern 50-50 split Senate, then Senate GOP Leader Trent Lott negotiated a powersharing agreement with Democratic Leader Tom Daschle to guide governance of the chamber.
Another 50-50 Senate emerged after the 2020 election when Joseph R. Biden ousted Mr. Trump from the White House and Democrats picked up Senate seats.
The Senate party leaders, New York Democrat Charles E. Schumer and Kentucky Republican Mitch McConnell, modeled their powersharing agreement after the measure used 20 years prior.
Both agreements provided for equal distribution of committee seats, budgets and office space.
While normally a tied committee vote would kill a measure, the powersharing agreements allowed for the Senate to vote to discharge a measure that stalled on a tie. The motion to discharge could be called up by either party leader and could be approved on a simple-majority vote.
While the majority leader would still control if and when that measure would be brought up for a vote, the agreement said both leaders “shall seek to attain an equal balance of the interests of the two parties when scheduling and debating legislative and executive business generally.”
In both 2001 and 2021, party leaders also struck side deals to foster more open amendment debate on bills, but neither was formalized in the powersharing agreements and therefore was not enforceable.
It is unclear whether Mr. Schumer would negotiate the same agreement if faced with a 50-50 Senate where his party did not have a technical majority, as Democrats did in 2021.
He could try to leverage additional concessions from Republicans, such as subpoena or other oversight authorities.
But Mr. Schumer may not want to overplay his hand because that could risk pushing Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. John Fetterman to switch parties.
Mr. Fetterman has on multiple occasions denied any interest in becoming a Republican, but the temptation will only increase in a closely divided Senate.
The Pennsylvania senator has more friendships across the aisle than within his caucus and has opposed some of Democrats’ tactics, such as using government shutdowns to leverage policy concessions.
Mr. Fetterman has also voted with Republicans in support of the Iran war and pro-Israel policies.
The past 50-50 powersharing agreements contained a provision nullifying their effects if “either party attains a majority of the whole number of senators.”
This became an issue in May of 2021 when Sen. James Jeffords of Vermont decided to leave the Republican Party and become an independent. There was no longer a 50-50 split Senate, but neither party had a majority of the 100 total senators.
Mr. Frumin, who had just been promoted from associate parliamentarian to the top role after Republican leaders fired Senate Parliamentarian Robert Dove, said he experienced a moment of “professional agony” navigating Mr. Jeffords’ unforeseen party switch.
“I convinced his chief of staff to tell Jeffords he didn’t have to say he was a Democrat. He had to say he was caucusing with the Democrats,” he said. “For our purposes, that made him a Democrat, such that the Democrats had 51.”
Mr. Fetterman “could very well be the next Jeffords” and become an independent, Mr. Frumin said.
The former Senate parliamentarian also noted the “strange language” in the nullifying provision of the powersharing agreement.
“It was an odd thing, speaking of a majority of the ’whole number,’” Mr. Frumin said. “Almost nothing in the Senate is based on a percentage of the ’whole number.’ It’s almost always based on a percentage of the senators duly chosen and sworn.”
He said the decision to use the alternative descriptor was “because the people who drafted that resolution thought Strom Thurmond would drop dead.”
Mr. Thurmond, South Carolina Republican, was 98 in 2001 and had he died in office, the membership of the Senate GOP Conference would have temporarily dropped to 49. That could have given Democrats the majority, had Republicans not advocated for the “whole number” provision.
It’s unlikely either party will want to push for a change in the provision after an unexpected Senate death this year. South Carolina GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham died at age 71 from heart failure due to an aortic tear.
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