Declare victory and go home. Keep a naval blockade until Tehran cries uncle. Drop bombs until the Iranian regime surrenders.
President Trump said he would not attack Iran until after the midterm elections. Now, it’s decision time.
Voters repudiated his decision to wage war, complicating his exit plan from a seven-month conflict designed to thwart Tehran’s nuclear program. The president is caught between an incoming Congress that wants to constrain his war powers and hawks who say it is time to finish what he started.
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“If Trump does nothing, his legacy will be failure. Iran will keep attacking,” said Michael Rubin, the director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum.
“Trump is now liberated in a way and has a choice: he can cement himself as a man who gets things done and eliminates problems previous presidents ignored, or he can be the man who allowed the ayatollahs to play him and destroy the U.S. economy,” he said. “Trump has two years to finish the job.”
Mr. Trump is leaving the door open to both diplomatic and military resolutions to the Iran situation.
He could also stay the course with a naval blockade and sanctions, hoping the economic pressure forces the regime to abandon its nuclear ambitions.
The president said Monday his blockade, coupled with a Task Force Iron Gate to shut off land routes, means “very little gets into, or out of, Iran.”
Mr. Trump could also seek an immediate deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway, and addresses Iran’s nuclear program.
Diplomats from Qatar and Pakistan have ferried peace proposals back and forth for months, hoping to avoid an escalation that could put the entire region at risk.
But Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Monday that Iran made “outrageous and ridiculous” demands, so the sides remained far apart.
Mr. Rubio said Mr. Trump wants to solve the Iran war “and every problem diplomatically,” but said that “sometimes that’s not possible, unfortunately.”
Mr. Trump’s military options include a strike on Pickaxe Mountain, an underground facility where Iran might be storing enriched uranium. Or, he could order harsher strikes that target energy infrastructure and aim to topple the regime.
“I would rather not destroy the rest of the country, if possible, but maybe I’ll have to,” Mr. Trump told White House reporters on Thursday. “You’ll know soon enough.”
At the same time, Mr. Trump said it would take Iran over two decades to rebuild from previous strikes, a comment that suggests he could claim victory now.
The U.S., alongside forces from Israel, bombed Iran on Feb. 28 to prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon, while degrading its missile program and ability to sponsor terror proxies in the Middle East.
Early strikes decimated Iran’s military and killed the long-reigning ayatollah, but Iran retaliated with strikes on Gulf nations and by closing traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil shortfalls raised energy prices, driving GOP losses at the polls on Election Day.
The U.S. blockade and alternate routes have restored oil flows to pre-war levels, though gas prices remain elevated and Iran could lash out again.
During the first round of fighting, Iran learned it could spread pain by targeting American allies and infrastructure in the Gulf region, while weaponizing energy supplies, said Ilan Berman, senior vice president at the American Foreign Policy Council.
“They’re liable to do this again if fighting restarts, which means that U.S. military action needs to be calibrated to degrade Iranian offensive capabilities and loosen the regime’s grip on the region,” he said. “Doing that will create additional pressure on oil markets, to be sure, at least in the near term. But it would at least allow the president to claim that he did not walk away from the situation with Iran in a strengthened geopolitical and geo-economic position.”
Both sides are reviewing their options after a Democratic rout of Mr. Trump’s party in the recent elections.
Tehran must decide whether to strike a deal now or wait and see if congressional Democrats constrain Mr. Trump’s war aims.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Monday the U.S. should give up now, pointing to the GOP’s midterm defeat.
“Americans are evidently sick and tired of Israel bamboozling U.S. administrations into Forever Wars. They had enough. So has our region,” he said on X.
The Trump administration will take stock of public anti-war pressure and Democratic attempts to exert congressional oversight of the war once the new Congress is sworn in the new year.
“Whatever path the president chooses, time is clearly of the essence,” Mr. Berman said. “His freedom of action on the Iran front can be expected to shrink when the new Congress is seated in January – particularly if Democrats make the war a major topic of scrutiny, as they currently seem inclined to do.”
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, New York Democrat who is eyeing the speaker’s gavel, said ending the “reckless war of choice” in Iran should be one of the Democrats’ priorities in the first 100 days of the new Congress.
Sen. Charles E. Schumer, New York Democrat who could become majority leader, said he would use the power of the purse to strip funding from the Department of Defense, if necessary.
Mr. Trump would likely veto any attempt to restrain his war powers, though his administration is mindful of the American public’s distaste for the conflict and its economic shocks.
Vice President J.D. Vance said the Iran conflict drove GOP defeats on Election Day.
“The reason we lost is the war,” he said on X. “The president said so …. If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next six years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.”
Mr. Trump said the assessment seemed accurate, but he would not have done anything differently.
“I think, historically, this will be a very good decision,” Mr. Trump told CBS’s “60 Minutes” program. “Is it a good decision for today and tomorrow? Maybe not. But you know, I have to go with what’s right for our country. If they had a nuclear weapon during my term, I would be excoriated far worse than what’s happened.”
• Vaughn Cockayne contributed to this report.
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