Poll: 46% of French Muslims would consider leaving if Le Pen wins presidency

Nearly half of French Muslims say they would consider leaving France if National Rally candidate Marine Le Pen wins next year’s presidential election, according to findings from a survey conducted by the pollster Ifop for the magazine Marianne.

Among Muslim respondents, 46% said they would consider moving to another country, including 20% who said they would “certainly” do so, Le Journal du Dimanche reported. Ifop polled 9,689 adults online from Sept. 25 to 30, Causeur reported.

Muslims were not the only group expressing that sentiment. Across all respondents, 21% said they would consider leaving, according to Causeur. The figure was 43% among voters for hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon and 44% among Jewish respondents. Le Journal du Dimanche also reported that 40% of the youngest respondents said they would consider leaving.

The poll also measured concerns about a Le Pen presidency. Among Muslim respondents, 81% said they expect an increase in attacks and discrimination against Muslims, and 27% said they might conceal their religious affiliation in daily life, Causeur reported. Francois Kraus, Ifop’s director of political research, said a National Rally government could provoke significant blockages and high levels of fear and insecurity, according to Le Journal du Dimanche.

The poll also found that 41% of all respondents would refuse to obey laws they consider unjust, including three-quarters of Melenchon voters and 45% of civil servants surveyed, the newspaper reported.

Ms. Le Pen responded Thursday night on CNews and Europe 1, telling Muslims weighing departure that they are wrong to fear her election, Causeur reported. “It’s their country. They are French,” she wrote on X, according to the outlet. She said Islam is compatible with the French Republic but that Shariah law and Islamic fundamentalism are not.

Ms. Le Pen did not back away from her proposed restrictions on the Islamic headscarf. She reaffirmed plans to put a bill targeting “totalitarian ideologies” to a national referendum, Causeur reported, and described a phased ban beginning with universities, sports federations and public buildings. Le Journal du Dimanche reported that National Rally lawmaker Jean-Philippe Tanguy confirmed in late August that the party’s proposal would fine violators of a public veil ban.

Ms. Le Pen leads first-round polling with between 32% and 36% support, depending on the matchup, according to the latest Ifop-Fiducial survey cited by Le Journal du Dimanche.

The results reflect stated intentions in a hypothetical scenario, not actual departures. Causeur said the poll captures high anxiety more than firm plans to leave.