OPINION:
Iran has been making a lot of threats, including, according to our intelligence agencies, planned attacks on American installations, bases, embassies and individuals. How real are these threats, and how seriously should we take them?
We can be forgiven for an initial reaction that the threats show only Iranian desperation. We have seen the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ oft-repeated chant of “Death to America,” recently accompanied by commentaries from analysts interpreting their messaging as a de facto appeal to influence American voters. We cannot be that dumb — or can we?
If we restart the bombing campaign against Iran after the midterm elections, as the president has said he might, Iran has threatened strikes not only on American bases and warships but also on airports, pipelines and other civilian targets. The regime has said it would extend targets, as it has in the past, to neighboring countries of the Persian Gulf. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other countries would expect to be hit.
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Iran has an unknown number of ballistic missiles and an apparently inexhaustible quantity of drones. Although significantly damaged by U.S. and Israeli bombing, Iran has probably half its missile supply left.
The number of remaining missiles is estimated to be 1,500 to 2,000, and the drone supply is at least as large. Both, we should suspect, are being resupplied by Russia and China. As this column has mentioned, a train runs between Beijing and Tehran. It probably carries anything the Iranians want, especially missiles, drones and money. Russian air and ground shipments are probably as large and varied, but neither Russia nor China will put its economy at risk to save Iran’s.
Iran is also reportedly resuming its production of ballistic missiles and drones using stockpiled parts.
Now we have a memo, reportedly sent to Secretary of State Marco Rubio by Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton, which states that Iran is planning, at an advanced stage, attacks on American individuals and groups.
The memo states, in part, “Specifically, through various channels, we have received intelligence that Iran has substantially increased efforts to target U.S. personnel.” It continues, stating that “The lethal plotting efforts by the Iranians against U.S. citizens have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other countries.”
That could mean any country in the Middle East, Europe or even here at home. Iran wants Americans to fear such attacks and thereby deter any resumption of our bombing campaign. We may fear Iranian attacks, but we cannot allow the threats to deter us from what we most need to do, which is to resume the bombing campaign and remove the Tehran regime.
We have to take the threats seriously from Iran and its proxies. We can expect the Saudis to rebel at the idea of further attacks on their population and oil facilities. The Saudis always want us to fight their battles but are reluctant to risk their own vulnerabilities. The Saudis have already suffered Houthi attacks that have hit several oil facilities and shut down air traffic to the Saudi capital. The Saudis should expect further attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis, who have had considerable success in striking Saudi targets regardless of whether we resume the bombing campaign.
Israel has the most to lose if Iran cannot be prevented from obtaining nuclear weapons, which comprise an existential risk to Israel. They are also vulnerable to Iranian attacks and those by its proxies. Hamas has taken severe casualties and is not a big factor until it rebuilds. Hezbollah is another matter. Its stockpiles of missiles and drones were as large as Iran’s, but Israel has destroyed a large proportion of them. Hezbollah only awaits orders from Iran to fire missiles and launch drones against Israel.
Will Mr. Trump be deterred by Iran’s threats? He cannot and should not be. Iran’s threats can be countered by force but not deterred. The U.S. has suffered 21 killed and more than 860 wounded so far in the Iran war. We can expect more killed and wounded, especially if Iran manages to kill and wound U.S. tourists in various countries, even at home. An Iranian attack on the U.S. homeland would be as unforgivable as it is no longer unthinkable. Nevertheless, we cannot stop until the Tehran regime is removed from power.
Mr. Trump began this war with the conviction that we had to remove Iran’s ability to obtain nuclear weapons. He cannot stop short of that goal.
• Jed Babbin is a national security and foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times and a contributing editor for The American Spectator.
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