Governors may matter more than Congress this November

OPINION:

From now to Nov. 3, the cable networks will count House seats and Senate majorities down to the very last precinct. Meanwhile, 36 states quietly decide who will lead their economies over the next four years.

Gubernatorial contests rarely lead a newscast, but they may tell us more about the country’s direction than anything happening on Capitol Hill.

The stakes are higher than they appear because the map is almost perfectly balanced. Of the 36 seats on the ballot, Republicans hold 18 and Democrats hold 18. Republicans enter the cycle with a narrow 26-24 edge in governorships nationwide.

A margin that thin matters because a governor can do what a legislator cannot: Act quickly.

A member of Congress has to assemble majorities in two chambers and then win a presidential signature, a process that can take years. A governor can set priorities, recruit employers, streamline permitting and direct a state’s resources on a much shorter timeline.

Where a company builds its next plant, how a state structures its taxes, how fast a project clears regulatory review and how workers get trained are all decided in state capitals, and those decisions compound. Over a single term, a determined governor can change a state’s competitive position in a way that few federal legislators ever will.

The scorecards increasingly favor the Republican approach. Chief Executive magazine’s 2026 rankings of the best and worst states for business put Texas, Florida and Tennessee in the top three, with Georgia fifth and Ohio seventh. Most of the top 10 states have Republican governors, while the bottom states — including Oregon, Washington, Illinois, New York and California — are all led by Democrats.

Because the ranking is based on a survey of executives, it measures perceptions rather than outcomes. Still, perception drives where capital goes, and where capital goes shapes the outcomes that follow.

The tax code appears to be part of the explanation. The American Legislative Exchange Council’s 2026 Rich States, Poor States index, which weighs 15 policy variables, found that eight of the top 10 states for economic outlook levy either a flat income tax or no income tax at all.

Ohio offers the most striking example. It made the largest gain of any state, climbing from 25th to 15th after adopting a flat tax, and the momentum shows up elsewhere too. Chief Executive’s survey lifted Ohio five places to seventh. In July, CNBC’s Top States for Business study, which evaluates 138 metrics, ranked Ohio first overall for the first time in the study’s history.

Now those records are on the ballot, and the map gives Republicans a chance to build, defend and expand. Four open seats offer the opportunity to extend a winning formula. In Georgia, Rick Jackson is running to succeed Gov. Brian Kemp, and in Ohio, Vivek Ramaswamy is the nominee to follow Gov. Mike DeWine.

Rep. Byron Donalds carries the party’s banner in Florida, while Sen. Marsha Blackburn does the same in Tennessee. Forecasters rate Georgia and Ohio as toss-ups, a reminder that strong records do not defend themselves.

Three incumbents are also seeking new terms: Gov. Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire, Gov. Jim Pillen in Nebraska and Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders in Arkansas. Ms. Ayotte’s race may be the most instructive of the three because it tests whether center-right governance can hold ground in a state that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024.

Last, and perhaps most important, Republicans have room to go on offense. Wisconsin, Kansas and Michigan are open seats now held by Democrats. Rep. Tom Tiffany is the nominee in Wisconsin, and Senate President Ty Masterson is the nominee in Kansas, a state that Mr. Trump carried by double digits in 2024.

Michigan leans Democratic, but Republicans should continue to approach it as an opportunity. John James, twice his party’s nominee for the U.S. Senate, has the statewide experience to be a strong nominee in a state this evenly divided.

I am curious to see whether, on election night, a strong Republican record can carry an open seat in a toss-up environment such as Georgia or Ohio. New Hampshire will show whether conservative governance can win in territory that previously went the other way. Wisconsin, Michigan and Kansas will prove whether Republicans can expand the governors’ advantage they already hold.

Control of Congress may decide who governs Washington, but the governors’ races will decide which ideas the country gets to test and which states attract the talent and capital that follow.

• Marty Obst is founder and president of MO Strategies.