Democrat Chris Pappas is worried.
He is warning his party that if they don’t start taking his U.S. Senate run against Republican John Sununu seriously, a loss in New Hampshire could kill Democrats’ chance to flip control of the Senate.
Mr. Pappas, a four-term congressman, has been digging for dollars. He is betting that a big war chest is what he needs to ride a blue wave to victory Nov. 3.
“This election could go either way,” he said in one of his many fundraising blasts. “The country is watching, and the outcome here in New Hampshire will determine control of the U.S. Senate and what the next two years look like for millions of families across the country.”
For months, this race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen barely registered, overshadowed by the media circus around Maine’s Senate contest and the marquee races in Michigan, Ohio and Texas.
Not anymore.
Mr. Sununu is now within striking distance, and his win would likely torpedo Democrats’ hopes of netting the four seats they need to take over the Senate.
“John Sununu is winning the Senate race because Granite Staters know he will be an independent voice who will stand up for New Hampshire every single day,” said Scott Maltzie, chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party. “Chris Pappas is just the opposite. He voted with Nancy Pelosi 222 out of 223 times and would do the exact same thing for Chuck Schumer in the Senate.”
Mr. Pappas just came out of a Democratic primary that raised some doubts about how solid his support is among the liberal activists he needs on Election Day.
Mr. Sununu had an easier road through the GOP primary and kept focused on the top general election issues.
“From the first day of this campaign we focused on the issues important to voters across New Hampshire: economy, jobs, how do we bring down the cost of living,” he said at his primary night party this month. “When I talk about affordability, I’m talking about housing, I’m talking about health care, I’m talking about energy, the price of groceries.”
Mr. Pappas wants to make the race about President Trump.
In a new TV ad, he points the finger at Mr. Trump’s tariffs and the Iran war for pushing prices higher. He also jumped on analysts recently scoring the race a toss-up.
“MAGA super PACs are pouring millions of dollars a week into New Hampshire to try to flip this seat, and this race is officially a toss-up,” Mr. Pappas wrote on social media.
Inside Elections, a nonpartisan forecaster that scored the race a toss-up, said Mr. Pappas should be the favorite.
“In this political environment, Pappas should have the advantage and he nearly received more primary votes than all of the GOP primary candidates combined. But this race is going to still look close for a while.”
Mr. Sununu benefits from a name well known to New Hampshire voters.
His father, John H. Sununu, was governor and later White House chief of staff under President George H.W. Bush. His younger brother, Chris, was the state’s governor for four terms before stepping down in January 2025. And Mr. Sununu himself already served a Senate term, from 2003 to 2009, before losing to Mrs. Shaheen — the same seat he’s now trying to win back.
Republicans have other reasons to feel good about November.
Gov. Kelly Ayotte, a Republican and former U.S. senator, is the heavy favorite for reelection over Democrat Cinde Warmington. Her strong showing atop the ticket could help pull Republican voters to the polls.
Still, history favors Democrats. They haven’t lost a Senate race in New Hampshire since 2010. Kamala Harris eked out a win over President Trump in 2024, though her win by less than 3 points in New Hampshire was her narrowest margin anywhere.
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