Democrats are poised to flip five to 15 House seats in the Nov. 3 midterm elections and take control of the chamber from Republicans, according to a new analysis.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election prognosticator, shifted its ratings in 15 House races toward Democrats on Friday.
Erin Covey, the publication’s editor for U.S. House races, said Democrats are likely to end up with a House majority with 220 to 230 seats, and that range could shift further in their favor “if Republicans are unable to effectively stem the bleeding.”
“Despite a push for mid-decade redistricting, a massive reserve of cash, and an unpopular opposition party, Republicans are on track to lose their House majority this November,” she wrote in the publication.
Democrats celebrated CPR’s analysis, which bolsters their internal confidence about their prospects this cycle.
“The floor is falling out from underneath House Republicans,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Courtney Rice said. “After two years of raising costs and lying to the American people, they’ve all but assured that they will lose the majority in November.”
National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Mike Marinella said “nobody outside the D.C. bubble cares what a bunch of pundits slap on a race rating.
“House races are won in the districts, and Republicans have the stronger ground game, air superiority across the battleground, and historic financial firepower while Democrats are still begging for cash just to prop up their socialist bailout fund,” he said.
More than half of CPR’s 15 new rating shifts are Republican-favored seats that remain that way, just slightly more competitive.
The more alarming shifts for Republicans are the races where they no longer hold an edge.
CPR shifted three races from a “lean Republican” rating to toss-up status.
One of those is Texas’ 15th Congressional District, where two-term GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz is running for reelection against Democrat Bobby Pulido, a well-known Mexican/country musician.
Ms. De La Cruz “has struggled to consolidate support from Republicans and conservative-leaning independents who swung hard toward Trump last cycle,” Ms. Covey said. Mr. Trump won the district by 18 points in 2024.
“Right now, South Texas is with us, and today independent experts confirmed what we’ve been feeling here on the ground,” Mr. Pulido said. “Monica De La Cruz has had two terms to fight for this community, and instead she gutted our healthcare, raised our grocery and gas bills, and never once held a town hall to answer for it. That ends in November.”
The other races shifting away from Republicans to toss-ups are open seats in Florida’s 22nd District and North Carolina’s 11th District. If Democrats win both, the former would be an unexpected hold after GOP-favored redistricting and the latter a flip.
In total, CPR rates 23 races as toss-ups; 17 of those seats are held by Republicans, five by Democrats.
Republicans would need to win a majority of those races to hold onto their majority, which Ms. Covey said is “not impossible, but incredibly difficult.”
CPR also shifted two races from the toss-up category to “Lean Democratic,” including an open seat in Arizona’s 1st District that is held by a Republican.
In New Jersey’s 7th District, CPR gives Democrat Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot, an edge over two-term GOP Rep. Thomas Kean Jr., who missed votes for several months this year while undergoing treatment for severe depression.
Ms. Covey cited Mr. Kean’s “unique vulnerabilities,” such as initially hiding the reason for his absence, and his job approval rating being even more underwater than President Trump’s in a district that the president won by a single point in 2024, as reasons he is at risk of losing.
Six races shifted from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” including open seats in Montana’s 1st District and Texas’ 35th District.
Four Republican incumbents were also shifted to the more precarious: Reps. Jeff Crank in Colorado’s 5th District, Anna Paulina Luna in Florida’s 13th District, Maria Elvira Salazar in Florida’s 27th District and Bryan Steil in Wisconsin’s 1st District.
CPR shifted Republican Rep. John McGuire’s race in Virginia’s 5th District from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican,” as well as three open races in Nevada’s 2nd District, New York’s 21st District and Texas’ 9th District.
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