The U.S. faces a “severe” shortage of qualified engineers and technicians needed to rebuild or replace satellites targeted by China or Russia in a theoretical 21st-century war in space, according to a major new report from the Rand Corp.
The study, released last week, comes at a crucial moment as the U.S. seeks to bolster its space-based warfighting and defensive capabilities, and as the Space Force expands rapidly and assumes an even more central role in American military strategy. At the same time, ambitious new projects such as President Trump’s proposed Golden Dome missile shield depend heavily on space-based assets, as does the modern American military’s ability to operate globally with reliable communications, GPS and other crucial tools.
America’s adversaries are keenly aware of the Pentagon’s heavy reliance on space. Critical satellites would almost certainly be targets in a future great power war. But the Rand study says the U.S. could face serious problems trying to quickly repair or replace satellites that may be damaged or destroyed.
One “key question is how quickly the United States can replace those capabilities during a conflict. Although much attention has focused on making these systems more resilient, far less has examined how fast they can be rebuilt after an attack, especially within 12 to 24 months,” the study reads in part. “China and Russia have shown they can threaten or destroy U.S. space assets, potentially weakening U.S. and allied military operations across many domains. In a prolonged conflict, the ability to restore these capabilities on a short timeline could be critical.”
Threats to U.S. satellites are no longer theoretical.
Russia is believed to be racing ahead with a program to field nuclear-armed anti-satellite weapons, which could use a nuclear blast in space to destroy satellites.
China has invested heavily in building space weapons that can destroy or disrupt satellites, which would incapacitate U.S. communications, intelligence, missile warning and undermine the military’s ability to conduct joint operations and project power around the world.
Getting those capabilities back up and running quickly would be absolutely essential for the U.S. military in a future war.
The Rand study says the biggest hurdles stem from workforce shortages. While about 3% of all American engineers already work in the space industry, the study says it currently takes too long to onboard new qualified workers.
Significant delays in acquiring all of the necessary security clearances for technicians working on critical satellites, along with a high number of foreign nationals holding the required advanced degrees, make it hard to ramp up the workforce pool, the report said.
The Rand study also points to gaps in the “continuous production” of workers with the necessary math, science and engineering skills required to work on modern satellites, some of the most complex and technologically advanced pieces of equipment on the planet.
The study urged the Space Force to invest in new avenues to train more qualified workers. Specifically, the report said the Space Force must take the lead to ensure “coordination to align, expand, and sustain efforts across the space industrial base.”
The Space Force is in the midst of a major hiring blitz and aims to bring on board thousands of new civilian employees, including engineers, over the next year.
“We are hiring engineers, we’re hiring program managers,” Natalie Riedel, executive director of U.S. Space Systems Command, said in a Guardian Spotlight interview published in July. The Guardian Spotlight is a question-and-answer profile series featuring key Defense Department officials published by the military.
“Cyber is at the top of the list. We need those cyber experts in order to get after the mission. We are hiring in all different fields and looking for talent at all levels. We need recent college graduates, and we need mid-career professionals. We’re hiring at all levels,” Ms. Riedel said.
The military will also rely heavily on private defense companies, with their own pools of qualified workers, to keep the rapidly expanding array of U.S. satellites operating.
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