Threat Status for Wednesday, October 21, 2026. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.
President Trump on Wednesday said he secured the release of Stephen Hubbard, an American detained in Russia four years ago on charges the State Department says were fabricated.
… Mr. Trump is urging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to make a deal with Russia or the war is “just going to get worse.”
… Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president who has become one of the Kremlin’s most virulent anti-Western hawks, is cheering the freeze in Trump-Zelenskyy relations.
… The Wall Street Journal is reporting that it was SpaceX CEO Elon Musk who ordered the recent slowdown of Starshield over Ukraine.
… Secretary of State Marco Rubio praised attempts by Pakistan and Qatar to mediate between the U.S. and Iran on Wednesday, but he said the Trump administration will reject any deal allowing Tehran to build nuclear weapons.
… Mr. Trump says the riots in France are born out of overzealous immigration that risks destabilizing all of Europe.
… British police have rearrested two of the men suspected of plotting a terrorist attack on an air base used by U.S. forces to bomb Iran.
… North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un’s sister announced tough new North Korean measures against South Korea.
… And the U.S. Air Force has identified the airman who died Oct. 17 during a rappelling demonstration at a college football game in Texas.
The Trump administration’s new push for progress toward ending the Ukraine war ahead of the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections saw White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff hold a meeting in St. Petersburg Wednesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The meeting came a day after Mr. Rubio tried to assure the world that the U.S. has not shifted away from sharing intelligence and providing weapons to Ukraine. On a separate front, there were reports Tuesday that Mr. Musk ordered the recent slowdown of Starshield — the military-grade version of Starlink — relied upon by Ukrainian forces.
Mr. Witkoff, meanwhile, thanked Mr. Putin for lifting the Russian ban on diesel exports, a deal spearheaded by Mr. Trump that has drawn bipartisan ire in Washington and angered Mr. Zelenskyy, who says the deal will provide a cash infusion for Moscow’s war machine. Mr. Witkoff said ahead of Wednesday’s meeting that he hoped to press Mr. Putin to consider U.S.-Russia-Ukraine trilateral peace talks.
The 18th edition of the biennial “Exercise Keen Sword 27,” which includes troops from Japanese, U.S. and other militaries from as far away as Europe, is the largest-ever version of the drills. It mainly is based around Japan’s Ryukyu Islands in the southwest but reportedly also includes areas off central Japan.
The Ryukyu Islands, between Japan and Taiwan, include straits that China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy would have to transit to blockade or surround Taiwan. Pentagon officials say the training, which runs through Oct. 29, includes “air and missile defense, facility protection and repair, logistics and resupply, casualty evacuation and maritime operations.”
In addition to 45,000 Japanese troops and 11,000 U.S. service members, the exercise’s “Blue Force” includes units and assets from France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand and the Philippines, U.S. Pacific Command said. British and South Korean troops are observing the drills.
The Pentagon’s plan to build “the next great American base” has triggered a wave of speculation since Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the project last month and told governors from around the nation that they will be able to pitch their state as a home for 15,000 to 25,000 military personnel.
A senior defense official who spoke on background Tuesday with the Defense Writers Group said that rather than erecting random buildings on a plot of land and expecting military units to adapt to their surroundings, the construction will be driven by mission, with the new base designed to generate its own electricity, apart from any local grid, and be able to defend itself against threats such as drone attacks.
“This is not military construction. This is not the way we have ever built anything before,” the defense official told Pentagon Correspondent Mike Glenn. “The design of a new base from the ground up allows us to purpose-build it as a capability — as a weapon system.”
Despite Mr. Trump’s Oct. 11 announcement of an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine, the Russians have “continued attacks and the ceasefire has not taken hold,” writes Jed Babbin, a national security and foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times and a contributing editor for The American Spectator.
“Mr. Trump also announced that we would purchase more than 300,000 tons, or 2.2 million barrels, of diesel from Russia for shipment to the U.S. and global markets, followed by an additional 500,000 tons in November, 1 million tons ‘immediately thereafter,’ and a fourth tranche of 3 million tons,” Mr. Babbin writes in The Times.
“We should not do this for many reasons. The first is that Russia will almost certainly use the proceeds to finance its war in Ukraine, which is now in its fifth year,” he writes. “How can we credibly tell the Europeans that they should not buy Russia’s oil and natural gas when we pull something like this? We cannot, so we should not buy it.”
Foundation for Defense of Democracies founder and President Clifford D. May writes in an open letter to Mr. Trump that “the title ‘leader of the free world’ is yours to claim or forfeit. Vladimir Putin hopes you forfeit it.
“For nearly five years, Mr. Putin has been waging a war against the Ukrainians, who have fought and bled to remain within the free world. They look to you to lead,” Mr. May writes in the letter, published as his weekly column for The Times.
“Ukrainians are not asking for American boots on the ground, only that you support the defense of their independence, families and freedom,” he writes.
• Oct. 30 — Gen. Dagvin R.M. Anderson, Commander of U.S. Africa Command, on U.S. Strategy and Security in Africa, Atlantic Council
• Nov. 17 — Special Threat Status Event: The Golden Age of Space, Threat Status
• Nov. 20-22 — Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia, Canada, HFX
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