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Threat Status for Monday, May 4, 2026. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

U.S. Central Command is denying Iran’s claim to have struck multiple American Navy ships near the Strait of Hormuz.

… The United Arab Emirates says an Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. tanker was hit by Iranian drones.

… President Trump is vowing to dramatically draw down the U.S. troop presence in Germany.

… Two U.S. service members were reported missing Sunday in Morocco.

… Threat Status Special Correspondent Joseph Hammond has an exclusive video analysis on how and why terrorism is surging in Africa.

… CNN is pumping a narrative that an unfinished Iran war will give Chinese President Xi Jinping leverage over Mr. Trump in their upcoming summit.

… Mr. Trump’s advisers say the opposite is true, as the State Department sharpens sanctions to strangle the Iran-China oil nexus.

… The Pentagon announced deals Friday with seven major artificial intelligence companies for use in classified military networks.

… And the World Bank says global energy prices have surged to their highest level in four years as the Mideast war sends “shock waves through the global economy.”

Strait of Hormuz: U.S. Navy begins freeing blockaded commercial ships

A man stands in the water, appearing to fish, as bulk carriers, cargo ships, and service vessels line the horizon in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Monday, April 27, 2026. (Razieh Poudat/ISNA via AP) ** FILE **

The U.S. military on Monday denied Iran’s claim to have struck American Navy ships as Washington launches a new mission to help vessels stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. “TRUTH: No U.S. Navy ships have been struck,” the Pentagon’s Central Command, which oversees all U.S. military operations in the Middle East, said on its official X account.

Central Command said over the weekend the Navy is deploying guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 land- and sea-based combat aircraft, and several sea and air drones to guide international commercial ships out of the strait, which American forces have kept under blockade since April 14 in an attempt to sever Iran’s control over the strategic waterway.

Under the mission, dubbed “Project Freedom,” U.S. warships will guide the commercial vessels out of the restricted waters. A quarter of the world’s oil trade and “significant” volumes of fuel and fertilizer products pass through the strait annually. About 15,000 American service members are expected to be involved in the Project Freedom mission.

Islamic State, other terror groups surge in Africa

Burkina Faso's President Captain Ibrahim Traoré, left, and Mali's President General Assimi Goïta stand during a welcome ceremony of the Confederation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), to the second summit on security and development in Bamako, Mali, Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025. (Mali Government Information Center via AP)

Terrorism is skyrocketing across the troubled African continent, with almost 24,000 deaths in 2025 blamed on terrorism-related violence — a 24% increase over 2024, according to recently released statistics. Mr. Hammond examines the situation with a deep-dive report and exclusive video analysis.

Pentagon-backed research from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies released in April shows 23,968 terrorism-related fatalities across Africa in 2025. Almost every region had a marked increase. The Sahel, a semi-arid belt between the Sahara Desert and the continent’s savanna, continues to be the epicenter of terrorist violence.

This group of landlocked countries on the edge of the Sahara, including Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, remains the focal point for militant activity and an area where U.S. Africa Command has not engaged in — or at least has not publicly acknowledged engaging in — sustained combat operations. The Africa Center data shows 9,826 fatalities in the Sahel linked to militants in 2025.

Trump reducing U.S. troops in Germany as global power dynamics shift

U.S. troops from NATO member Poland and some of its allies showcase military equipment during the yearly observances on Poland's armed forces holiday in Warsaw, Poland, on Thursday, Aug. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

Mr. Trump is vowing to pull “a lot” more American troops from Germany after an initial reduction of 5,000, as fallout from the Iran war reshapes power dynamics around the world and fuels political friction at home. Changes to America’s force posture in Europe could be one lasting consequence of the war. Another might be a deeper partnership structure with Persian Gulf countries.

Key Republican leaders on Capitol Hill say they are “very concerned” about pulling U.S. forces from Germany and the signal it sends to America’s adversaries. The Pentagon announced the move late last week amid a public feud between Mr. Trump and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz over U.S. strategy in the Iran conflict.

The Pentagon said it would complete the reduction of 5,000 within six to 12 months. Mr. Trump said he is prepared to go much further. “We’re going to cut way down. And we’re cutting a lot further than 5,000,” the president told reporters Saturday in Florida.

U.S. fast-tracks $8 billion in arms sales to Gulf Arab powers and Israel

In this image released by the U.S. Department of Defense, German soldiers assigned to Surface Air and Missile Defense Wing 1, fire the Patriot weapons system at the NATO Missile Firing Installation, in Chania, Greece, on Nov. 8, 2017. U.S. officials say the Pentagon is expected to announce that it will provide about $6 billion in long-term military aid to Ukraine. It will include much sought after munitions for Patriot air defense systems and other weapons. (Sebastian Apel/U.S. Department of Defense, via AP) **FILE**

The State Department late last week approved arms sales totaling more than $8 billion to Israel, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE. The development underscores how the U.S.-Iran war has pushed some key Gulf players closer to Washington while isolating Tehran from its neighbors.

The largest foreign military sale was $4 billion worth of Patriot Missile Defense battery replenishment and related equipment to Qatar, home to America’s Al Udeid Air Base. The U.S. also will sell the Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System to Qatar for $992 million, the State Department said. 

Kuwait is getting the Integrated Battle Command System and related equipment worth $2.5 billion. Like Qatar, Kuwait, Israel and the UAE all host American military installations. The Trump administration bypassed a congressional review process on the sales by declaring that an emergency warranted the transactions to be fast-tracked.

Opinion: Nothing spurs innovation like the demands of modern warfare

Drone technology in modern warfare illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

“The Defense Department must enable the highest level of competition for AI and other next-generation technologies,” Daniel N. Hoffman writes in an op-ed for The Washington Times. Such competition “attracts more entrants into the defense market, spurs innovation and reduces costs to taxpayers,” he writes, asserting that the department also “should not hesitate to allow higher profit margins if that creates greater incentives for research and development and reduces development time.

“Competitive market forces, not artificially low or noncompetitive profit margins, should drive the basis for negotiating price,” writes Mr. Hoffman, a retired CIA Clandestine Services officer and opinion contributor to Threat Status.

“The Defense Department should double down on investing in cutting-edge technology such as Project Maven by expanding funding for more world-class laboratories and research facilities and nurturing the workforce of U.S. scientists and engineers on whom the defense industrial base relies,” he writes. “With productive bipartisan oversight and budgeting from Congress, the Defense Department is poised to lead the U.S. to victory in the AI arms race.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• May 4 — Economic Security and Mega Choke Points: Japan’s Strategic Reset, Brookings Institution 

• May 5 — Untangling the Web of U.S. Alliances, Stimson Center

• May 6 — A Conversation with Japan’s Former Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura on Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Policy Outlook and Solutions, Hudson Institute  

• May 6 — U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral Cooperation, Center for a New American Security 

• May 7 — Chernobyl’s Legacy 40 Years On, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

• May 7-9 — The AI+ Expo, Special Competitive Studies Project 

• May 8 — Is Russia’s War Machine Running Out of Steam? Atlantic Council

• May 13 — Forging the Next Era for the U.S.–ROK Alliance in Economic and National Security at America’s 250th, Stimson Center

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