Congress is nearing a vote on the Pentagon’s request to send $130 million in military assistance to armed groups in Syria fighting the Islamic State, but changing dynamics on the ground could weaken the program’s effectiveness and dampen the Trump administration’s efforts to improve ties with Damascus.

The Counter-ISIS Train and Equip Fund has disbursed hundreds of millions of dollars since 2014 to pay salaries, provide weapons and train vetted partner forces fighting ISIS — primarily in Syria and Iraq.

But in Syria, the organizations the fund was intended to support, including the Syrian Democratic Forces, are integrating with the formal Syrian military, which is overseen by a government the State Department still formally designates as a State Sponsor of Terrorism.

The vice president made global headlines Monday by saying Iran has agreed to allow inspectors from the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog agency, telling reporters in Switzerland following the first round of negotiations with Iranian officials that the foundation was good, but “the final deal is in the house.”

Tehran did not immediately verify Mr. Vance’s claim but struck a cautiously optimistic tone following the talks, reassuring hardliners that the Islamic republic will not make any concessions before ensuring Washington does as well. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei did, however, say expert-level technical talks surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and the future of U.S. sanctions will be held this week. 

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on X the meeting delivered “major progress to end [the] Lebanon War,” and noted progress on oil exports, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, frozen Iranian assets and major reconstruction plans for Iran.

The parliaments of Germany and France are pushing a joint initiative demanding more aggressive European action to crack down on Russia’s “shadow fleet” of some 500 tankers that Moscow relies upon to smuggle oil exports to buyers such as India, China and even Turkey, a NATO member.

The joint initiative, which went before a German-French Parliamentary Assembly meeting Monday, calls for more robust diplomatic efforts aimed at the countries where the Russian shadow fleet vessels are registered. German officials say the fleet generates revenue, financing the Kremlin’s ongoing war against Ukraine.

Germany last seized a suspected Russian shadow fleet vessel in March 2025. The vessel was carrying more than 100,000 tons of crude oil on its voyage from Russia to Egypt when the engine failed, killing the ship’s ability to move.

A closed-door crisis simulation by the European Values Center for Security Policy found that “during the early phase of a China-led escalation around Taiwan, China’s interest would be to keep South Korea out of a U.S.-led alliance.” Beijing would likely “offer economic benefits” to Seoul to stay neutral, particularly given its dependency on China for coal, critical minerals [for batteries and chips] and clean-energy technologies, a recently released report on the war game stated.

It’s notable that at the recent Group of Seven summit of leaders from the world’s wealthiest democracies, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung declined to sign a joint goals initiative on critical mineral supply that took aim at China.

The wargame’s findings on Europe’s response to potential Chinese military action against Taiwan were hardly better. It found the 27-member bloc, which prioritizes “internal consensus building, often at the expense of swift external action in crisis scenarios,” responded with “actions that lacked both effectiveness and coherence.”

A U.S. deal with Iran “teaches Tehran — and all our other adversaries watching — that killing its own citizens, threatening global energy markets and escalating nuclear blackmail can force the world into capitulation,” writes Armita Hooman, a research analyst with the National Union for Democracy in Iran.

“For the regime, the deal is a victory. For the Iranian people, it is a betrayal,” Ms. Hooman writes in an op-ed for The Washington Times. “The new avenues of destabilizing leverage a deal would encourage are already visible.

“A deal validates the regime’s playbook for the Strait of Hormuz,” she writes. “The mullahs now know that a relatively short-lived economic disruption can serve as a strong shield for survival. They have learned that oil price blackmail works.”

• June 23 — Coffee Talk with Gen. Ronald Clark, Commander of the U.S. Army Pacific, Association of the United States Army

• June 23 — From Insight to Policy: Partnering with African Expertise to Inform U.S.-Africa Policy and Engagement, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• June 24 — IndoPac 2026 | Naval Dominance: Shipbuilding, Autonomy & C2, Threat Status Events

• June 25 — Navigating Competition in the Central Arctic Ocean, Hudson Institute

• June 30-July 1 — AWS Summit, Artificial Intelligence Technologies in the Public Sector, Amazon Web Services

• July 8-9 — Military Robotics and Autonomous Systems USA Conference, SAE Media Group