Updating yesterday’s TRR post — CNN released a poll on Sunday that showed independents breaking for Mitt Romney 59%, with 37% for Barack Obama. (These numbers are buried on page 30 of the CNN report.) Because CNN assessed the likely electorate as 41% Democratic, 30% Republican and 29% independent, this translated into a 49%/49% tie. But this breakdown should be called the “unlikely voters.” Using the more realistic Rasmussen and Gallup party ID breakdown, with Republicans holding a slight edge in party ID, a 22 point lead among independents on election day would give Mr. Romney around 53% of the popular vote and a victory margin of 7-8% after third parties are factored in.
The election will come down to how the independents vote, and so far polls show them breaking for Mr. Romney. If there are any that show Mr. Obama with a significant lead I have not seen them.