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U.S. intel braces for Kremlin blowback as result of spy case
Question of the Day
U.S. intelligence agencies are on alert for retaliation by Moscow, including a mass arrest of U.S. diplomats or intelligence officers who could then be used in a swap for 10 people arrested on suspicion of roles as Russian deep-cover spies posing as Americans.
“The goal on our side is to keep this in intelligence channels,” said a knowledgeable U.S. official who declined to be identified because of the sensitive nature of the case. “If the Russians play it smart and don’t overreact, they can limit the impact on the broader relationship.”
Asked about the possibility of expulsions or arrests, the official said: “It’s not entirely certain what the Russians might do, but there are some signs from over there that they don’t want it to get bigger.”
U.S.-Russian intelligence cooperation will continue “when it’s in our national interest to do so,” the official said, noting that “this case shows not only that we need strong counterintelligence work, but that we can do it, patiently over time.”
Two questions were left unanswered by court papers released by the Justice Department on Sunday in the case of a purported network of Russian SVR intelligence service “illegals” rolled up by the FBI after more than a decade of deep-cover work: How they were first discovered and what will happen to them?
Word is circulating in U.S. intelligence circles that President Obama is expected to find a way for the accused Russian agents to be released and sent back under his conciliatory “reset” policy toward Moscow.
The KGB spy service and its post-Soviet successor, the SVR, have been known to go to great lengths to get its captured spies back. And the main power in Moscow today, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, is a former KGB officer who has promoted former KGB officials to high posts in his government.
Former KGBGen. Yuri Drozdov, who ran the illegals section of the KGB for some 30 years, boasted in an interview in Moscow in 1992 that every illegal agent arrested overseas, with the exception of those who defected, was freed by the KGB. Each spy was released “in spite of how much it cost or how difficult it was to get him back,” he said.
As for how the spy ring was uncovered, Yusill Scribner, a spokeswoman for the U.S. attorney’s office in New York, declined to comment.
Counterintelligence sources in Washington, however, said the sleeper network was not uncovered by FBI agents investigating foreign influence operations, something the bureau has resisted since the controversial Chinese intelligence and political influence operation surfaced in the 1990s.
Instead, the counterintelligence sources, who do not have firsthand knowledge but based their views on years of experience, said initial discovery of the illegals network most likely evolved from one of two sources: either an intercepted communication decoded by the National Security Agency or by a human agent, such as a SVR defector or other informant, who was paid for information.
Both methods have been used successfully by the FBI. In the 1990s, an electronic intercept of a Chinese government communication led to the major investigation of Beijing’s influence operations, including President Clinton’s 1996 re-election campaign, that became known as Chinagate.
Such sensitive details about the spy ring are likely to be disclosed during a trial. But if the U.S. government decides that disclosing such details could harm future counterintelligence probes, it may balk at the entire prosecution.
© Copyright 2014 The Washington Times, LLC. Click here for reprint permission.
About the Author
Bill Gertz is a national security columnist for The Washington Times and senior editor at The Washington Free Beacon (www.freebeacon.com). He has been with The Times since 1985.
He is the author of six books, four of them national best-sellers. His latest book, “The Failure Factory,” on government bureaucracy and national security, was published in September 2008.
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