The Washington Times - July 29, 2009, 05:23PM

OK, here’s a D1scourse first: An entry brought on by a reply left on the blog’s Twitter account.

(Consider that a friendly reminder that D1scourse is on Twitter).


On Monday, Maryland was picked fifth in the Atlantic Division, prompting this tweeted question:

What is the Terps over/under thru the years against the preseason poll?

It turns out Maryland has surpassed expectations 15 times, met expectations 11 times and fell below expectations just seven times since the conference’s preseason poll began in 1976.

SURPASSED (picked/finished)

1978 (3rd/2nd)
1982 (4th/2nd)
1983 (2nd/1st)
1984 (2nd/1st)
1988 (6th/T4th)
1990 (6th/4th)
1995 (8th/T5th)
1998 (9th/T8th)
1999 (9th/T8th)
2001 (7th/1st)
2002 (3rd/T2nd)
2003 (3rd/2nd)
2005 (5th-A/T4th-A)
2006 (4th-A/T2nd-A)
2008 (5th-A/T3rd-A)

MET (picked/finished)

1976 (1st/1st)
1979 (2nd/T2nd)
1980 (2nd/2nd)
1985 (1st/1st)
1987 (5th/5th)
1991 (6th/6th)
1993 (7th/T7th)
1994 (7th/7th)
1996 (6th/T6th)
2000 (6th/T6th)
2007 (5th-A/T5th-A)

FELL SHORT (picked/finished)

1977 (1st/T3rd)
1981 (2nd/3rd)
1986 (1st/5th)
1989 (5th/6th)
1992 (7th/8th)
1997 (6th/8th)
2004 (5th/T7th)

Some notes on this…

* Realistically, six of those ties (1998, 1999, 2002, 2005 and 2006) could be shifted from surpassed to simply met, since the logjams were large enough to include the Terps’ predicted position. That would bring the media’s record to just better than .500 (17-for-33) in accurately forecasting Maryland’s future performance.

* Assuming exceeding the pick is a win, falling short is a loss, and meeting the anticipated result is a tie, here’s each coach’s record:

Jerry Claiborne: 1-2-3
Bobby Ross: 3-1-1
Joe Krivak: 2-1-2
Mark Duffner: 1-1-3
Ron Vanderlinden: 2-1-1
Ralph Friedgen: 6-1-1

* I’m not sure how much credit Vanderlinden merits for sharing the cellar a couple seasons when he was predicted to finish there outright. Just the same, Claiborne was predicted to land in the top two in five of six seasons. It’s not easy to beat those expectations.

* Maryland was picked first just four times, and not once since 1986.

* Maryland was picked second just five times, and not once since 1984.

* The media have overvalued Maryland by more than two spots just once (1986) and undervalued the Terps by more than two spots just twice (1995 and 2001).

—- Patrick Stevens