Mid-day Sunday at the Intrade prediction market, shares in Scott Brown winning the special Senatorial election in Massachusetts were trading at 50 — meaning roughly an even chance of him winning. Shares had dropped around seven points that morning in anticipation of President Obama’s appearance in support of Martha “Marcia Marcia Marcia” Coakley. This also reflected a story line making the rounds that polling had shown Brown’s surge had basically stalled. But after Mr. Obama’s speech, shares in Brown began to climb and by midnight had surged to 70. Over the same period the Coakley market collapsed to 38. Looks like the market has spoken.
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