Cracking the Sunni Triangle

While many are touting the deaths of Saddam Hussein’s two sons as dealing a potential death blow to continued Iraqi opposition to American forces, victory toasts may be a bit premature. Iraqi hit-and-run attacks are continuing, and our forces are taking casualties on a daily basis. These attacks are centered in the so-called Sunni Triangle, running from Baghdad north and west of the city in central Iraq. These attacks have been attributed to dissident Ba’athists, Saddam loyalists,outsidejihadists,and criminals freed en masse by Saddam before the start of this year’s war. These differing factions are certainly involved, and the Sunni Iraqis must be providing a safe haven for those conducting this “death by a thousand cuts” war on our forces.

The reason why the Sunnis are still fighting the Coalition lies in the perception of their fate in the new Iraq. Sunni Iraqis are only about 20 percent of the population, yet they have been running Iraq for centuries, and they feel they are entitled by birthright to continue. They ruled Iraq for their Ottoman masters when Iraq was part of the Turkish Empire, and they’ve been running it ever since the formation of the artificial Iraqi state established after World War I. Kurds and the Shi’ites, who compose 60 percent of the Iraqi population, have been under the not-so-tender yoke of the Sunnis and now are poised to be the dominant players in a post-Saddam Iraq.

Paybacks are hell, and the Sunnis realize the Kurds and Shi’ites are sharpening the knives in anticipation of settling age-old scored with their former overlords. The Iraqi Sunnis, not burdened with the Wilsonian nonsense driving our foreign policy, know they will not be the big bullies on the block, and will instead be on the receiving end from here on out. Their only survival strategy is to play the Mogadishu card and inflict casualties on U.S. forces until public pressure forces a withdrawal of Americans from Iraq. After the withdrawal, the Sunnis hope they will be able to re-exert their control, whether under Saddam or another equally murderous thug. It is their only hope, they feel, and it is driving the current attacks upon our forces.

Coping with this will not be easy, especially under current U.S. doctrine. We think of ourselves as being liberators, while the Sunnis view us as a direct threat to their existence, and they certainly don’t look forward to being the low man on the totem poll in the brave new Iraq.

The ancients had particularly brutal ways of handling such insurrectionists. Both Genghis Khan and the Roman Legions didn’t hesitate to sack and lay waste to cities and areas that resisted their forces. We, however, being more modern and less bloodthirsty, would not consider such a policy. We must either continue to absorb casualties, withdraw or come up with a political solution that will solve the problem.

Iraq is not a viable nation-state. Forged from three different Ottoman provinces of old, it has never created a sense of common nationhood. Being a Shia, Kurd or Sunni comes first in the hearts and minds of the people. Being an Iraqi is a distant choice, and thus the country is ill-prepared for a dose of nation-buildingAmerican Wilsonian democracy.

The solution that makes the most sense is to partition Iraq into three separate political entities: a Kurdistan in the north; a Shi’ite entity in the south; and the Sunni triangle in central Iraq. While not giving the Sunnis control over all of Iraq, they would be masters of their own fate in their current area. This solution, while obvious and logical, is anathema to the striped pants in the State Department who feel that borders, once drawn, are forever etched in stone. This is nonsense, as the partition of Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia demonstrate. But the State Department, spurning common sense, will reject it out of hand.

Meanwhile, our forces are continuing to spill their blood at the expense of Sunni Iraqis who are desperately trying to hold onto dwindling power. The continuation of Sunni power should not be at the expense of American soldiers. We should either partition the country or tell the Kurds and Shi’ites they have a free hand in sorting out the Sunnis on their own. Otherwise, we are playing Saddam and the Sunnis’ game and it is costing us dearly.

Morgan Norval is a geopolitical consultant. Hugh Newton is a Washington public relations consultant.