The all-important 2022 midterm elections are just over a year away, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Socialism and President Joe Biden’s radical left-wing agenda are on the ballot, and what kind of country we hand off to our children and grandchildren will be tested.
Radical House Speaker Nancy Pelosi holds a razor-thin 222 to 213 majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, so there’s literally no room for error for the Democrats. Republicans need a net pickup of just five seats to reach the magic number of 218 seats to take back the majority in the House.
There’s no question that to maintain control of Congress next year, the radicalized Democrats in the House will have to make a dramatic move to the center, and even that may not save them. Consider the headwinds that Mrs. Pelosi and company are currently facing. First and foremost, the party in power almost always loses House seats in a president’s first midterm election. Republicans lost 26 House seats in President Ronald Reagan’s first midterm in 1982; Democrats lost 54 House seats in President Bill Clinton’s first midterm in 1994, and Democrats lost a whopping 63 House seats in 2010 in President Barack Obama’s first midterm.
Furthermore, when dealing with such historically slim margins, Democrat retirements take on far greater significance this year. It usually means that entrenched incumbents are simply reading the writing on the wall. The realization that Mr. Biden is an incompetent leader and his socialist agenda is an unpopular failure that no American signed up for is starting to sink in. Mr. Biden’s border crisis, inflation crisis, crime crisis, Afghanistan crisis, and vaccine mandate crisis are causing his polling numbers to plummet so badly that he’s on the verge of taking other Democrats down with him - just ask Virginia’s Democrat gubernatorial nominee Terry McAuliffe.
That’s why we’ve begun seeing the early retirements by House Democrats starting in earnest. To date, seven House Democrats have already announced that they will not seek re-election to the 118th Congress in November 2022. Senior Democrats, committee chairs, and Democrats in swing districts are all beginning to announce their retirements because they have no interest in being in the minority.
That’s the bottom line for House Democrats like John Yarmouth, David Price, Mike Doyle, Ron Kind, Cheri Bustos, Ann Kirkpatrick, and Filemon Vela - who are all exiting stage left next year - and history suggests there will be many more retirements to come. In 2018, for example, nearly two dozen House Republicans chose retirement over serving in the minority, which directly impacted the strategic decisions made by the Republican conference.
Generic congressional ballot polling data is also a key indicator about what party the voters want in charge of Congress starting in 2023. And so far, it’s looking like Americans are in the mood to make a change. According to Real Clear Politics, the generic ballot average of polls for the 2022 midterms is 44 percent Democrat to 42 percent Republican. By contrast, the final RCP average in 2020 was 49 Democrats to 43 Republicans, and Republicans picked up seats. As Democrats in Congress continue to flounder and Biden’s approval rating continues to tank, look for the Republican number to improve on the generic ballot.
As we move closer and closer to Election Day next year, Republicans must draw a sharp contrast between the current Democrat failure we’re witnessing and the successful America first agenda our party stands for. For starters, President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans demonstrated that pro-growth economic policies create jobs and opportunity. Democrats, on the other hand, want to raise taxes and continue a culture of government dependency that is decimating our once-vibrant economy, as we see right now, with massive inflation hitting every American.
And the list goes on and on. Mr. Trump’s strong border wall combined with his enhanced security program worked effectively until Mr. Biden’s irresponsible executive orders created the ongoing humanitarian crisis we see on our televisions every day. As far as law and order issues go, Republicans have and will always support, fund, and stand with the men and women of law enforcement. Democrats decided to cave to the radical left by alienating our heroic police. The left is also determined to defend the disastrous critical race theory and always bow to teacher unions. Republicans, by contrast, want to give parents more of a say in their children’s education. And while Mr. Biden and the Democrats refuse to get tough with China on the world stage, Republicans want to hold China accountable for their bad behavior.
Democrats are making a massive mistake by pushing their radical socialist agenda. Mr. Biden campaigned on unity and normalcy and has delivered just the opposite. It was the classic bait and switch, and the American people don’t like it one bit. As more House Democrats come to grips with the fact that the 2022 elections will be a referendum on socialism and the malaise that they imposed on the American people, look for more to head for the exits by announcing their retirements from Congress.
• David N. Bossie is president of Citizens United, and he served as deputy campaign manager for Donald J. Trump for President.