NEWS AND OPINION:
It is a unique and powerful voting bloc — and the Republican Party has noticed.
“With crime on the rise and radical Democrats taking their soft-on-crime policies to the extreme, law enforcement officers are overwhelmingly supporting law-and-order Republican candidates,” advises a comprehensive study of this phenomenon compiled by the Republican National Committee.
“While Democrats turn their backs on police, embrace soft-on-crime policies, and let President Biden’s border crisis spiral out of control, Republicans back the blue and put American families before criminals. Polling consistently shows the American people are fed up with Democrats’ soft-on-crime policies and trust Republicans to make their communities safer,” the report said.
It cited surveys from CBS News, Real Clear Politics, The Washington Post and ABC News that revealed Republicans having as much as a 22 percentage-point advantage over Democrats when it came to handling crime. The report also cited multiple GOP candidates who have some noteworthy support from state and local law enforcement agencies.
Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker is one example of this phenomenon. He has been endorsed by the National Border Patrol Council, the Fraternal Order of Police, the Police Benevolent Association of Georgia, and over 100 sheriffs across the state.
Sen. Ron Johnson, meanwhile, has been endorsed by a bipartisan majority of Wisconsin sheriffs — 51 in total. He also has the support of the Kenosha Professional Police Association Board, the Milwaukee Police Association and the National Border Patrol Council.
This is just a short summary of the GOP’s eye-opening research. Find this report and others at GOP.com/research.
NOW THERE’S A THOUGHT
Voter turnout can be a nail-biter for both the Republican and Democratic parties, which each spend considerable time and money wooing those reliable voters who will show up on Election Day and cast their ballot. But what happens if they don’t vote?
“Reverse GOP nightmare: What if rural voters stay home?” asked HotAir.com.
“You have to give them a reason to show up,” responded Glenn Reynolds, founder of Instapundit.com.
THERE GOES THE MONEY
Midterm political ad spending could hit a record $9 billion this year, according to a new estimate from Kantar’s Campaign Media Analysis Group — or CMAG for short. The organization has been an industry source for this estimate for years.
“Tight races and ballot initiatives lead to a surge in spending. The surge of political ad dollars flowing to media has caused Kantar/CMAG to raise its spending estimate to $9 billion, which would be a new record for political dollars in a midterm election with respect to local broadcast TV, local cable TV/satellite, local OTT (over-the-top), Facebook, Google and radio,” Ad Age noted.
“The new estimate tallies $4.6 billion for local broadcast TV, $1.4 billion for OTT, $1.5 billion for local cable TV/satellite, $1.2 billion for Facebook and Google and $300 million for local radio,” Ad Age wrote in its handy review of the research.
LEADERS AND DISASTERS
Partisanship is a “key factor” in determining how those who have experienced a disaster view their leaders.
So says Jeffery A. Jenkins, a provost professor of public policy, political science and law at the University of Southern California who predicts that Hurricane Ian and its storm surge will determine how Florida residents view Gov. Ron DeSantis.
“The way that a politician responds to a disaster is still important, but that response is attenuated through the partisanship of the citizens themselves. The same kinds of citizens who are helped by disaster relief but have different partisan leanings may give that politician less credit for what their leader has done,” Mr. Jenkins said in a statement shared with Inside the Beltway.
“Just imagine you have two people whose homes are flooded to the same degree. They live next door to each other. One is a Democrat and one is a Republican. The Republican would probably see DeSantis’s efforts in a more positive light than the person who affiliates with the Democratic Party. Partisanship just kind of frames everything in our lives,” Mr. Jenkins said.
“Something we would’ve found pretty hard to believe a couple decades ago: Does it really matter that the governor who’s trying to help is a Republican or a Democrat? Does that really frame the way that you’re seeing the, you know, the facts on the ground? The answer is, it does,” he concluded.
THEY’RE STILL SPENDING
Consumers may fret about inflation, but they’re still spending, says Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist for the National Retail Federation.
“The economic situation in the United States is unsettling. Consumer confidence is down, consumer spending’s rate of growth has slowed, and economists and consumers alike are worried about the possibility of a recession, all reflecting persistently high inflation and rising interest rates. Nonetheless, spending continues to grow, and many economists say a recession — if there is one — will likely be mild,” Mr. Klenhenz said in a statement shared with Inside the Beltway.
“Consumers have become cautious — but they have not stopped spending. Growth is not as high as last year, but households continue to spend each month as more jobs, wage growth and savings backstop their finances and help them confront higher prices,” he said.
The organization’s Monthly Economic Review advised that consumer spending held up better than expected in August as overall retail sales reported by the Census Bureau grew 0.3% from July and 9.1% year over year.
“Year-over-year increases in retail sales have been mostly in the upper single digits since spring, not as dramatic as the double-digit numbers seen most of last year into early 2022 — but still healthy,” the review said.
POLL DU JOUR
• 12% of U.S. adults would describe their political viewpoint as “very conservative.”
• 19% describe their political viewpoint as “conservative.”
• 31% describe their political viewpoint as “moderate.”
• 16% describe their political viewpoint as “liberal.”
• 10% describe their political viewpoint as “very liberal.”
• 13% are “not sure” what their political viewpoint is.
SOURCE: A YouGov poll of 1,500 U.S. adults conducted Sept. 24-27.
• Follow Jennifer Harper on Twitter @HarperBulletin.