Biden’s Afghanistan problem: The pivotal moment where he lost Americans’ trust

OPINION:

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With the Republican presidential race transitioning to a general election posture, the focus has shifted to President Biden and his strengths and weaknesses as a candidate. Historically, sitting presidents have been elected to serve a second term nearly 80% of the time, with only 10 failing to do so. So, the odds would appear to be in favor of Mr. Biden. Yet there remains one big problem.

When looking at the Biden administration’s RealClearPolitics job approval polling average over the last 3½ years, you see something highly unusual. Mr. Biden’s approval rating has remained underwater for 30 months, which is extraordinary for a sitting president with the bully pulpit and the power to drive the news cycle daily. He should be able to dominate the message and starve any challenger of earned media attention — forcing that challenger to expend resources through paid media. Yet Mr. Biden continues to lag in favorability at a time when he wants to be gaining momentum.

A president’s job approval rating usually goes up and down over the course of a four-year term. When charting public sentiment, it is common for the “approve” and “disapprove” lines to cross many times depending on circumstances. Consumer confidence, international conflicts, and social and kitchen table issues can affect how Americans feel a president is performing. Like a sporting event, the lead can change many times during a game.

Job approval sentiment is often connected with trust. When looking at the RealClearPolitics job approval tracking of President Biden throughout his term, it is clear that the president lost the voters’ trust at one particular moment.

What happened 30 months ago that was dramatic enough to cause Americans to lose trust in Mr. Biden and drive up disapproval sentiment? An issue that is rarely discussed yet arguably the most significant moment in his presidency is the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan.

While this news event was covered for a few weeks, its overall coverage was short and minimal compared with that of issues like Ukraine, the border, Hunter Biden, spending battles, and Hamas’ attack on Israel and the response to it. Yet based on the data, this one event materially and seemingly permanently shifted public perception of Mr. Biden as a leader and continues to weigh down any chance he has for reelection.

The adage about losing trust in buckets and regaining it in drops appears to ring true regarding how the president handled Afghanistan. That moment drove up his negatives and put him in the difficult position of finding ways to regain trust while navigating (and sometimes creating) challenging issues domestically and overseas.

This is an important context when considering Mr. Biden’s apparent campaign strategy — which appears to be attacking former President Donald Trump and his supporters. With any campaign, when you attack your opponent, you might drive up their negatives. Still, there are opportunity costs associated with such attacks, as the time attacking is time lost in telling your own positive story. The net effect ordinarily is the lowering of your own favorability.

This leaves Mr. Biden in a political box. He is running out of time to convey a vision for the future. If he takes time to paint Mr. Trump in a negative light, he knows that will do nothing to raise his approval numbers. Meanwhile, polling data shows that his message on “Bidenomics” is not resonating. On top of that, the president’s age dampens enthusiasm for his candidacy, as his run feels more like the end of an era rather than the start of a bright future.

In presidential elections, the more hopeful and optimistic candidate almost always wins. “Shining City on a Hill,” “A Thousand Points of Light,” “Hope and Change,” and “Make America Great Again” were all winning messages that connected with the voters. Whichever candidate can do this between now and November likely will win.

If Mr. Trump wins, it will be because he recognized his opponent’s dilemma. While pointing out Mr. Biden’s failures, Mr. Trump needs to spend most of his time painting a vision for America’s future.

For Mr. Biden to win, he will have to regain the voters’ trust, which he hasn’t had since the failure in Afghanistan. Time is ticking, and he has a lot of drips to recapture from the bucket of trust lost.

• Keith Nahigian is president of Nahigian Strategies and a veteran presidential campaign strategist.