War is coming over Taiwan

OPINION:

China’s preparatory efforts to invade Taiwan are accelerating. The exercise for attacks on Taiwan, termed Joint Sword 2024A, is significant for the following reasons.

First, the naming convention suggests there will be follow-on exercises such as Joint Sword 2024 B and C, which corresponds to the three elements of the Chinese military’s doctrine for an invasion of Taiwan, the Joint Fire Strike Campaign, or JFSC, Joint Anti-Air Raid Campaign, or JAARC, and the Joint Island Landing Campaign, known as JILC. The idea of follow-on exercises was also suggested by a Global Times commentator on May 23 to include a fourth, part D. This means that the pace of exercises is quickening in order to mask Beijing’s intentions and preparations for war.

Second, unlike the previous Joint Sword in April 2023, which was four days in duration, 2024A is just two days, an indicator that the Central Military Commission and People’s Liberation Army are honing their skills and sharpening their command and control to bring all their power to bear in a shorter, more concentrated time frame. In essence, fulfilling this iteration of exercises will fulfill their stated goal of being able to conduct a “short, sharp war.”

That matters, because if China believes it can win quickly and decisively, then the ability of Taiwan and partners like the United States to deter such an attack is weakened. In addition, the naming of specific training objectives and elements such as “joint sea-air combat-readiness patrol, joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control, and joint precision strikes on key targets” adds credence to the thesis of the “short, sharp war” objective for the Chinese Communist Party and Central Military Commission.

Third, and most obvious, the closure areas are much closer to Taiwan than they were in Joint Sword 2023 or even the August 2022 missile firing exercise. This time the Joint Sword 2024A closure areas are within Taiwan’s contiguous zones — 24 nautical miles. In addition, the Chinese coast guard was noted on May 23 sailing within the territorial waters of Taiwan’s offshore islands of Wuqui and Dongyin — as close as 2.8 nautical miles.

By doing this, China is testing to see just how close to Taiwan it will be able to operate before generating a kinetic response from Taiwan, Japan or the U.S. This is invaluable information to obtain and will provide Beijing a great advantage if and when they decide to conduct an invasion.

Fourth, the joint nature of these operations is notable. With the reports of Chinese Strategic Rocket Force missile batteries being out of garrison and conducting “mock fire strike” launches, the main emphasis of this two-day Joint Force-2024A is on “joint precision strikes on key targets,’’ again, what the Chinese military doctrinally calls the Joint Fire Strike Campaign. This was occurring while the other services (army, navy and air force) were engaged in “joint sea-air combat readiness patrols” and “joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control.”

According to Chinese reporting, its navy and air force platforms also conducted “mock fire strikes.” In the case of the air force, bombers and fighters were noted carrying live ordnance. We should also note that Chinese navy warships and submarines already go to sea with live ordnance. Given that follow-on phases (B, C and D) of this exercise are expected, we should look for the Chinese army to transition from the JFSC into the JAARC in the next phase that will likely also be 48 hours in duration.

Fifth, Joint Sword 2024A is also a strategic signal to Taiwanese President William Lai letting him know that every day of his administration will be under the threat of invasion, regardless of whether or not it happens. Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party are betting this will have a huge psychological impact on Mr. Lai and perhaps he will crack under the pressure and give in, or he will make a mistake and give Beijing an excuse to invade Taiwan.

Sixth, this announcement and exercise are also a signal to the U.S., specifically to Adm. Samuel Paparo, the new commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and our allies’ militaries that the U.S. is helpless and cannot stop China from fulfilling its strategic goal of seizing and controlling Taiwan. Moreover, Beijing knows it has sympathetic advocates in the U.S. who will amplify this “defeatist” message to America’s national security community.

Seventh, the fact that China is conducting another Joint Sword exercise should be a warning to American and allied national defense planners about the scope, scale and seriousness with which Mr. Xi, the Chinese Communist Party, the Central Military Commission and China’s military are taking toward achieving their stated goal of “reunifying” Taiwan.

Eighth, the exercise also helps us understand the completeness of their target lists in the macro. Again, Chinese news reports discuss striking key targets in the north of the country, principally calling out political targets, but they also note that Chinese forces are focusing on military targets in the south and that they are also capable of striking from anywhere around the island.

Ninth, the exercise being held in late May also reminds us that Chinese military forces will not be constrained by weather or tied to a specific month. Recall in 2022, the Chinese army conducted an unprecedented JFSC rehearsal in August 2022, then in April they conducted Joint Sword 2023 closely following the JAARC, and now exercise Joint Sword 2024A in late May with other phases likely occurring through summer.

As such, American military and political planners must not get stuck in the mindset that China will invade Taiwan only during a specific month or weather pattern. This exercise demonstrates the Chinese Communist Party wants the military to be able to invade at any time, day or night, all weather, just like the U.S. military has trained and executed throughout our history. China wants to “own the night” as the U.S. military boasts about our own operations, which give surprise and increase lethality.

Tenth, it is important to point out that while Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin are mentioned as areas of focus for targeting and isolation, the Penghu and Pescadores are not mentioned and have no closure areas near them. While it is almost certain the Penghu Islands, in the middle of the Taiwan Strait, will be targeted in any invasion of Taiwan, it also seems increasingly clear that the Chinese would not risk their entire element of operational surprise by launching an attack on the Pescadores as some assert. China’s main objective is the main island of Taiwan. The neutralization (which does not equal total destruction) of islands like Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqui, Dongyin and the Penghus are required only as they are in the avenue of approach to Taiwan.

In light of the quickened pace toward war, America must build up our kinetic warfare capabilities. First, we must move existing forces into the Pacific. For instance, we should move at least two carriers west of the international date line, in order to have at least two of three carrier strike groups in continuous operations at sea within the first and second Island chains.

Second, the president should call for and drive a national military mobilization campaign immediately, to build rapidly the platforms necessary to deter and defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Americans must understand that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will very likely include an attack on American forces in Asia.

Third, there is no better time than now for U.S. forces to conduct a combined exercise between Taiwan, America, Japan, the Philippines, and other treaty allies in the region. The recent announcement of the inclusion of the Japanese military in Exercise Valiant Shield is a step in the right direction and should be expanded.

Fourth, China’s joint operational command center in Fujian province is playing and will play a key role in any invasion of Taiwan. As such, American and allied leaders need to start planning on striking key targets on the mainland of China.

Fifth, as we state in our book, “Embracing Communist China: America’s Greatest Strategic Failure,” our allies in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan need to have tactical nuclear munitions.

The situation in the Western Pacific is dire, and Beijing must understand just how serious the U.S. and the world take Beijing’s aggression and that we will not allow such an invasion to occur without great cost to China. It may seem escalatory to some, but the fact is the China has been escalating conventional and nuclear forces for 25 years.

It is time for America to stand up and lead the fight against the illegitimate communist regime in China. The solution to the crisis in Taiwan is the eviction from power of the Chinese Communist Party.

• James E. Fanell and Bradley A. Thayer are the authors of “Embracing Communist China: America’s Greatest Strategic Failure.”